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Israel Freight Transport Q4 2012

  • Publication Date:October 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:58
  • ISBN:1015166

Israel Freight Transport Q4 2012


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates.

The outlook is not entirely sanguine for the Israeli freight transport sector. We estimate growth in air and
rail freight to have been either sedate to the extreme or negative in 2011, with risks to the downside, and
the picture has not vastly improved so far in 2012. Both the national airline and container shipping
company, El Al and Zim, have both declared losses for H112 and the country's trade outlook is uncertain,
with our country risk desk forecasting a flat year for total trade real growth. From 2013 we project that
the situation will improve, although in a sedate manner.

Headline Industry Data


- 2012 air freight growth is forecast at 3.1%; we project average growth of 4.3% per annum to
2016.
- 2012 Port of Haifa tonnage throughput growth is forecast at 8.2%, following growth of 4.2% in
2011, and to average 4.7% per annum to 2016.
- 2012 rail freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 3.3%, following an estimated contraction of
4.5% in 2011, to average 4.6% to 2016.
- Total trade growth in real terms in 2012 is forecast to be flat at 0.0% and averaging 3.1% to
2016.

Key Industry Trends


El Al's Freight Revenue Declines 7%: Israel's flag carrier El Al Israel Airlines registered a 7% year-onyear
(y-o-y) decline in freight revenue to US$47.6mn in Q212. However, the airline's net loss narrowed to
US$6.2mn in the reported quarter, compared with US$20mn net loss in the same period a year before.
The company's gross profit jumped to more than US$75mn in Q212 from US$60mn in Q211, while its
total revenue slipped by 3% y-o-y to US$516.8mn.
Israel Railways To Inaugurate New Subsidiary: A newly-formed railway subsidiary will operate Israel
Railways' freight services from Q312. The unnamed company will be legally established by the end of
H112. Israel Railways intends to use the new business model to double the volume of rail freight traffic
handled by 2016, thereby increasing annual revenue to US$87mn in 2016 and US$128mn in 2020.
Another subsidiary will be established in order to manage Israel Railways' property assets.
Eilat Suffers In 2012: 2012 is turning out to be a tough year for Israel's Port of Eilat (also known as Elat).
The country's third largest facility and only port on the Red Sea has seen just one bidder remaining for its
privatisation tender and has recorded a decline in throughput, which BMI forecasts will lead to the
facility posting its second consecutive year of throughput decline.
Israel Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
6

Key
Risks To Outlook




Continued political turmoil in Israel's Middle Eastern neighbours, especially within Egypt and Syria,
offers up and downside risk to BMI's forecasts for Israel's economy and freight transport sector. Further
weakness in the economies of the US and eurozone could depress external demand and constrain
economic growth. This would be felt in particular by the air freight sector.
BMI Industry View .... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
Israel Freight Transport Industry SWOT ... 7
Israel Political SWOT .. 8
Israel Economic SWOT 9
Israel Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Industry Trends And Developments ... 11
Air 11
Rail ... 11
Maritime 12
Market Overview 15
Industry Forecast ... 17
Macroeconomic Outlook . 17
Air Freight .. 17
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 .. 17
Maritime Freight .. 18
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput ('000 tonnes), 2009-2016 .... 18
Rail Freight . 19
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016 19
Trade 19
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 .... 20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 . 20
Table: Israel's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 .. 21
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook . 23
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts 24
Table: Refining Marker Margins (US$/bbl) .. 28
Political Outlook 34
Foreign Politics .... 34
Long-Term Political Outlook .... 36
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 41
Table: Israel - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ... 43
Company Profiles ... 44
Zim Integrated Shipping Services (Zim) ... 44
El Al Israel Airlines ... 46
Israel Railways 49
Israel Cargo Logistics (ICL) 51
Demographic Outlook . 52
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .. 53
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 54
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 55
Table: Israel's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 55
BMI Methodology ... 56
Israel Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 56
Transport Industry 56
Sources .. 57
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