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Iran Shipping Report Q4
- Product Code:BMI06859
- Publication Date:September 2011
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
Iran Shipping Report Q4 2011
We continue to be concerned by the state of the shipping industry. Container shipping companies are struggling to push through rate increases and liquid and dry bulk operators are contenting with some of the lowest daily returns in years. The cause is overcapacity, which looks unlikely to ameliorate any time soon. Further, there are fresh challenges on the way, including the mega ships being built by Vale and Maersk Line.
In Iran it seems certain that the country's maritime industry's impressive growth in the face of international sanctions will weaken this quarter as western sanctions continue to target it. The latest blow is the addition of ports operator Tidewater to the list, which will result in a drop in the number of services calling at Bandar Abbas. The country's shipping companies also continue to be in the firing line. Whether Iran's planned 'economic jihad' of investment in the sector will negate these downward pressures remains to be seen.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast 1.4%, and to average 2.7% per annum to 2015.
- 2015 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2,963,131 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2011 total trade real growth forecast at 0.1%, and to average 1.7% to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Tidewater Added To US Blacklist As Sanctions Noose Tightens On Iran: Iranian trade, already severely hampered by US sanctions intended to curb the state's alleged nuclear weapons programme, was dealt another blow in July as the country's ports operator has been blacklisted by the US. Maersk Line, the world's number-one container shipping line, has already stated that it will suspend all services to Iranian ports.Seized Ships Handed Back - In April 2011, the last of five cargo ships that had been seized was handed back to Iran in Malta. With European banks calling in loans to Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), Iranian vessels had been impounded around the world in 2010.
New York Legislators Fire Warning Shots In IRISL Sanctions Battle: The risk of doing business with any company with possible links to IRISL, formerly known as the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, has been further highlighted in June by a 317-count indictment filed in New York against the company and 10 alleged alias corporations. The contagion is such that French shipping line CMA CGM, accused by a number of US politicians of being lax in their checks up to now, has set up a special 'Iran desk' to ensure no further contraband cargos are carried on their vessels.
Iran Wages 'Economic Jihad' To Boost Marine Security: The Iranian maritime sector has big development plans for the current Iranian year, which runs to March 2012, with 103 projects in the pipeline. These include 89 infrastructure development projects and 14 equipment projects. BMI notes that throughput at the country's ports has continued to show remarkable growth in the face of US-led sanctions, and that these works will help this, though with sanctions intensifying all the time we wonder for how long the growth can continue.
Key Risks To Outlook
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear-energy development programme, which the Iranians insist is not for the development of weapons, elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. It has long been known that Tehran's intention is to become a political and military powerhouse in the Gulf, a situation that has proved unnerving to its regional neighbours. That several Middle Eastern states have been actively calling for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the massive risks to regional stability that this would pose, clearly highlights their concern surrounding the possibility of a nuclear-armed Tehran in the region.
The addition of Tidewater, and the company's ports, to the boycotted list, will have massive ramifications for the port of Bandar Abbas, and will halt the double-digit growth the facility has enjoyed in recent months.
Equally, as Iran is so reliant on the export of its oil to feed its economy, any fluctuation in the price of fossil fuels could provide risk to our projections.
- Executive Summary
- Headline Industry Data
- Key Industry Trends
- Key Risks To Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- Iran Shipping SWOT
- Iran Political SWOT
- Iran Economic SWOT
- Iran Business Environment SWOT
- Global Overview
- Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
- Table: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term
- Dry-Bulk: No Recovery On The Horizon For Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low
- Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle
- Industry Trends and Development
- Market Overview
- Iran Container Shipping Overview
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009
- Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009
- Company Profile
- Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)