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Philippines Shipping Report Q3
- Publication Date:June 2012
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
Philippines Shipping Report Q3 2012
BMI View With the Philippine economy set to benefit from increased government spending and a moderate export rebound, 2012 is gearing up to be a relatively positive year for the country amid strong global economic headwinds. Although we see the government's 5-6% target as extremely optimistic, we continue to see the economy expanding by a more attainable pace of 3.9% in 2012, with exports posting modest growth of 2.2%. That said, with the Philippines shipping sector highly reliant on top export partners the US, China, and Japan, all of which are going to have to traverse choppy economic waters this year, the extent of the shipping sector's success is very much intertwined with events in these countries.
All of the Philippines' main ports are to enjoy a prosperous 2012 in terms of tonnage throughput, with the Port of Cebu leading the way with a forecast year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 8.43%, slightly ahead of the country's main port, the Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), which we predict will enjoy healthy y-o-y growth of 7.40%. The smaller ports of Cagayan de Oro and Davao will both see annual growth of 7.36%.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 tonnage throughput at MICT forecast to grow 7.40% to 20.08mn tonnes.
- 2012 tonnage throughput at the Port of Cebu forecast to increase 8.43% to 29.87mn tonnes.
- 2012 tonnage throughput at the Port of Davao forecast to rise by 5.82% to 11.46mn tonnes.
- 2012 tonnage throughput at the Port of Cagayan de Oro forecast to increase 7.36% to 7.08mn tonnes.
- The real value of Philippines' total trade will rise by 3.85% this year. Key Industry Trends Mitsui OSK Lines Announces Student Graduations Japanese shipping company Mitsui OSK Lines announced in March 2012 that some 84 students graduated from the Magsaysay Institute for Shipping's Third Year Programme after enjoying an education in seafaring safety and practical training. The programme, which targets Philippine students at seven maritime schools in the country, was launched in June 2011.
PPA Posts 12% Increase In Container Handling Container throughput grew by 12% per annum between January and November 2011 across facilities in the Philippines to 4.55mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) declared, as reported by the Philippines Business Mirror in February 2012. Domestic container and foreign container capacity increased by 21% and 7% to 1.76mn TEUs and 2.78mn TEUs respectively.
MCT Records Higher Containerised Cargo Volume Increased box throughput was achieved in 2011 at the Mindanao Container Terminal (MCT), operated by Philippines-based global terminal operator International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI), reported Business Mirror in February 2012. The growth was attributed primarily to rising export volumes of wood products. ICTSI has seen an improvement in cargo volumes during the last three years, with throughput rising by 51% y-o-y to 180,308TEUs in 2010.
Key Risks To Outlook On the upside, BMI sees exports returning to expansionary territory in 2012, but growing only moderately at 2.2% as headwinds from a hard-landing in China and weak growth in the US and Japan continue to weigh on the external demand outlook. Also, mid-term investment is going to present itself in the form of the privatisation of the Port of Davao's entire operations in 2013. The port is currently operated by the Philippine Ports Authority (PFA), a subsidiary of International Container Terminal Services International and the move is aimed at matching the pace of fast-growing cargo volume at the port. At the time of writing, the Department of Transportation and Communications was preparing the terms of the port's privatisation plan.
Additionally, overcapacity and weakening demand could pose major problems to the Philippines shipping sector, just like they could do to all of the major routes of Asia-Europe and the transpacific.
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Philippines Shipping SWOT
- Philippines Political SWOT
- Philippines Economic SWOT
- Philippines Business Environment SWOT
- Global Overview - Container Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses
- Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates
- Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided?
- Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line
- Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions
- Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low
- Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern
- Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market
- Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging
- Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices
- Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet
- Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism
- Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage?
- More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence
- 2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran
- Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates
- Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Market Overview
- Philippines Container Shipping Overview
- Industry Forecast
- Manila International Container Terminal
- Port of Cebu
- Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Philippines' Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Philippines' Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Company Profiles
- MCC Transport
- International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- Demographic Outlook
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006