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Poland Shipping Report Q3
- Product Code:BMI05842
- Publication Date:June 2012
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
Poland Shipping Report Q3 2012
Q112 results for Poland's largest port, the port of Gdansk have led BMI to revise down its throughput
projections for the port in 2012. We forecast a steeper decline in total tonnage to that witnessed in 2011
(-6.9%), of 10% year-on-year (y-o-y); in Q112 the port's total tonnage fell by 34% y-o-y.
This decline can be attributed to Poland's exposure to the struggling eurozone, with the majority of the
country's exports aimed for this region, where demand is dropping on the back of austerity packages.
Poland's import outlook looks more robust, although domestic demand is also projected to slow, which
will impact the country's container shipping outlook. BMI was already forecasting a slowing in box
throughput at the port of Gdansk in 2012, following a growth of 33.95% in 2011. On the back of Q1
results, which saw box volumes grow by 18% y-o-y in comparison with the 60% growth they recorded
for the same period in 2011, we have revised down our throughput forecasts. We now project the port of
Gdansk to handle 817,697 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2012, a y-o-y increase of 19.3%.
In our last analysis of the Polish shipping sector we highlighted upside risk to our Gdansk forecast, as the
G6 Alliance was planning to add the port to its Asia-Europe rotation, Loop 3. Due to the unavailability of
a berthing window, the G6 Alliance has pulled into Sweden's port of Gothenburg instead.
That is not to say that carriers will not keep up their interest in the Polish shipping sector, especially with
the country's relatively strong macroeconomic outlook. We also highlight the upside risk stemming from
the ongoing completion between Poland's two main ports, Gdansk and Gdynia, with the latter currently
undergoing expansion to enable it to handle larger vessels.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to decrease by 10%, over the mid-term (2012-
2016) we project a 10.3% increase.
- 2012 Port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 19.3%, over the mid-term we project
a 63.8% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 3.5%.
Key Industry Trends
Gdynia Expanding Its Box Facilities
Plans to expand Poland's Baltic Container Terminal (BCT) are steaming ahead with the Centre of
European Union Transport Projects (CETP) joining the port's operator ICTSI in funding the US$49.2mn
Gdansk Misses The Boat
While Gdynia's role in the box shipping sector has been ticking this quarter, Gdansk has not fared so well.
The port was expected to be added to a new Asia-Europe service operated by the G6 Alliance members
(Hapag-Lloyd, NYK, OOCL, APL, HMM and MOL) in April, Gdansk already features as a port of call
on one of Maersk Line's Asia-Europe services. Due to 'unforeseen circumstances of securing a berthing
window', Gdansk was left off the G6 Alliance's Loop Three, which operates vessels of over 8,000TEUs.
The service is instead calling at Sweden's port of Gothenburg.
Risks to Outlook
Continued growth at Poland's container ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for its economy.
Container throughput will be partly driven by consumers, a section of the Polish economy that is
strengthening. Poland's economic outlook will not be completely shielded from the predicted recession in
the eurozone, however, and this will filter through to throughput outlook at the nation's ports. Growth is
set to slow, and total tonnage volumes at Gdansk are forecast to decrease in 2012.
An upside risk to our forecasts comes from the continued development of Poland's ports as direct ports of
call. The decreased usage of transhipment hubs, with goods travelling directly between Asian and Polish
ports, is bringing down import and export costs and also driving up throughput volumes at the latter.
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Poland Shipping SWOT
- Poland Political SWOT
- Poland Economic SWOT
- Poland Business Environment SWOT
- Global Overview - Container Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses
- Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates
- Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided?
- Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line
- Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions
- Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low
- Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern
- Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market
- Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging
- Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices
- Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet
- Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism
- Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage?
- More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence
- 2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran
- Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates
- Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Poland Container Shipping Market Overview
- Industry Forecast
- Port of Gdansk Throughput Outlook
- Port of Gdynia Throughput Outlook
- Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Poland's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Poland's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Company Profiles
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
- Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020