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China Shipping Report Q4 2012

  • Publication Date:September 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:150
  • ISBN:165391

China Shipping Report Q4 2012


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates.
BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Chinese port and shipping sector, highlighting that indicators
continue to align to back our view of a slowdown in China's economic growth. There is growing evidence
that the economy is close to contraction. We do not expect a recovery any time soon, as structural forces
will keep growth relatively weak and highly susceptible to negative shocks. We forecast headline real
GDP growth to come in at 7.5% and 7.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. While monthly throughput data
from the country's main container shipping ports has picked up since the start of the year, the growth
posted by both Shanghai and Shenzhen has been far from impressive in H112, reflecting our macro view.
These monthly results support our view that a noticeable slowdown in Chinese economic growth is set to
come into effect during our forecast period. Our core view on Chinese growth is that we are past the
boom phase and we are entering a period of much weaker expansion. The slowdown in the construction
sector will result in less demand for imports of goods such as iron ore and coal, while ports and shipping
lines alike are feeling the effects of a gradual contraction in China's overseas trade volumes over our midterm
forecast period. Although this moderation in growth is expected to be soft, concerns over the
possibility of a sharper contraction in Chinese bilateral trade adds a degree of downside risk to our
projections.

Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.23%. Over the mid-term we
project average annual growth of 5.83%.
- 2012 Port of Shenzen container throughput forecast to grow 0.19%. Over our forecast period we
project average annual growth of 1.83%.
- 2012 trade growth forecast at 2.52%, a considerable slowdown from 2011's estimated 15.98%.

Key Industry Trends
APMT Chooses Ningbo
APM Terminal's (APMT) expansion strategy sees the Danish company return to China, taking a 25%
stake in three container berths at the Chinese port of Ningbo's Meishan Container Terminal.
China Shipping Report Q4 2012
Vale Navigates China Problem With Storage Vessel
BMI believes that the decision by Vale to introduce a second iron ore storage vessel into its fleet signals a
forced revisit to the company's shipping strategy following the ruling by Chinese authorities prohibiting
Valemax vessels from calling at Chinese ports.
Core China View Playing Out In Container Shipping
Four month container throughput results for 2012 paint an interesting picture of China's port sector. While
the country's first-tier ports are highlighting our core view of a Chinese slowdown, with box volume
growth slowing, the country's second-tier container ports are recording stellar growth,

Key Risks to Outlook
The risks presented to our China shipping forecasts are primarily to the downside, with a sharper-thanexpected
fall in the country's already-declining international trade volumes representing the most
immediate threat. In particular, we believe monetary tightening could cause the country's need for
materials such as iron ore to ease, leading to a decrease in the import of such commodities.
BMI Industry View .... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
China Shipping SWOT . 7
Global Overview - Container Shipping . 8
More Positive Box Outlook In H212 8
Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens ... 9
Concerted Rate Push Must Continue .. 18
Bunker Price Still A Worry .. 21
2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation 22
Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk .. 29
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping . 32
Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping . 32
Overcapacity A Long Term Problem .. 35
Bankruptcies To Continue .... 38
Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown . 42
Protectionism Trend Takes Off . 47
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping . 52
Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude 52
Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed .... 53
Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates ... 58
Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl) . 58
Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping 61
Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators ... 63
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs . 64
Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects .. 65
Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector . 69
Industry Trends And Developments ... 73
China Container Shipping Market Overview 78
Industry Forecast ... 84
Port of Shanghai ... 84
Port of Shenzhen ... 86
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 ... 88
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 .... 90
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 91
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn) .... 92
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn) .... 92
Company Profiles ... 93
Sinotrans Group.... 93
Maersk Line 96
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) ...102
China Shipping Report Q4 2012
4
CMA CGM .106
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)..113
Hapag-Lloyd ...117
Evergreen Line ....122
APL ..126
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) .131
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 137
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)141
Demographic Outlook .... 146
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 147
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .148
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 149
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 149
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