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Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2012

  • Publication Date:August 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:146
  • ISBN:146929

Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2012

Through 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the ports and shipping sector, is
political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 there are still many question
marks over the future of the country. BMI believes Egypt is a country that combines strong medium- to
long-term growth potential with significant short-term risks. Looking specifically at the ports and
shipping sector, increasing militancy by dock workers has been an important issue. The latest facility to
be hit by strikes was Sokhna, which had a 10-day strike in Q212. However, with private consumption
expected to shore up economic growth over the coming year, containerised imports could see strong
support.
BMI will continue to monitor developments at the facilities. In the absence of monthly throughput data,
our forecasts are being informed by our macroeconomic outlook and any news stories relating to
industrial actions. Most of our forecasts for 2012 have been revised down since last quarter on this basis,
though we are still projecting growth, in contrast to 2011 when most Egyptian ports recorded falls in their
handling volumes. The country continues to benefit from the Suez Canal, and investments in East Port
Said, the transhipment hub adjoining the waterway, will facilitate continued growth in its throughput.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 total tonnage throughput at Dekheila is forecast to grow by 2.1% to 24.33mn tonnes, and to
average 3.7% per annum to 2016.
- 2012 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 6.2% to reach 3.40mn twenty-foot
equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 9.0% to 2016.
- 2012 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 3.9%, and to average 6.6% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends
SCCT Expansion To Support Growth
BMI believes that the completion of the expansion of the container terminal at Egypt's East Port Said
facility will offer upside risk to our medium-term growth forecasts for the port. Although we are not
overly optimistic with regards to Egyptian demand for container shipping over the period, the port's
proximity to the Suez Canal ensures it receives considerable transhipment business, which East Port Said
hopes to increase.
Suez Canal Generates US$10mn Revenue In One Day
The Suez Canal generated US$10mn in revenue in a single day after Mohamed Morsy was declared
winner of Egypt's presidential election in June, according to a Suez Canal Authority official. The official
said that 37 vessels had traversed the canal, with 15 vessels in a northern convoy (carrying 1mn tonnes)
arriving from the Mediterranean and 22 vessels in a southern convoy (carrying 1.3mn tonnes) arriving
from the Red Sea.
Hapag-Lloyd To Offer ADX Service Between Adriatic And Egypt
German sea carrier Hapag-Lloyd has launched a new Adriatic Express Service (ADX) linking Damietta
and Port Said in Egypt to Koper and Venice in the Adriatic. Starting on May 1 2012, two 1,200TEU
vessels are deployed for the weekly rotation, which starts and finishes at Damietta, and includes calls at
Rijeka and Ancona.


Key Risks to Outlook

The main risks to our forecasts for Egyptian ports are primarily to the downside. Should the country be
wracked by another wave of political unrest, which remains distinctly possible at this stage, volumes
through Egyptian ports could see a contraction like that experienced in most facilities in 2011.
Additionally, any further industrial actions by workers could likewise affect throughput; Sokhna was the
latest Egyptian facility to be struck by strikes, with a 10-day action in Q212.
BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis .. 7
Egypt Shipping SWOT . 7
Egypt Political SWOT . 8
Egypt Economic SWOT .. 9
Egypt Business Environment SWOT . 9
Global Overview - Container Shipping . 10
More Positive Box Outlook In H212 . 10
Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens 11
Concerted Rate Push Must Continue 20
Bunker Price Still A Worry 23
2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation 24
Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk 31
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping 34
Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping . 34
Overcapacity A Long Term Problem . 37
Bankruptcies To Continue .. 40
Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown . 44
Protectionism Trend Takes Off 49
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping . 54
Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude . 54
Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed . 55
Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates 60
Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl) .. 60
Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping 62
Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators.. 65
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs .. 66
Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects 67
Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector 71
Industry Trends And Developments 75
Egypt Container Shipping Market Overview .. 77
Industry Forecast 82
East Port Said . 82
Port Of El Dekheila . 84
Table: Major Port Data. 2008-2016 . 86
Trade 88
Table: Trade Overview. 2008-2016 .. 88
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 88
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .. 89
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .. 90
Company Profiles .. 91
Maersk Line .. 91
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) . 98
CMA CGM .. 102
Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) .. 109
Hapag-Lloyd .. 113
Evergreen Line .. 118
APL . 122
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 127
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) . 133
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) . 137
Egypt Demographic Outlook . 142
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .. 143
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .. 144
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 145
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 145
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