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Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2012

  • Publication Date:October 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:152
  • ISBN:138782

Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2012

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates.

The port of Riga is set to hold the top position in Latvia's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage
and container throughput in 2012, after demonstrating robust growth in 2011.
Riga has a strong position to build on in 2012. Its 2011 throughput enabled the facility to retain its second
place ranking amongst the Baltic states' container ports, after Lithuania's Klaipeda, and so far in 2012 the
port posts double digit year-on-year (y-o-y) growth.
Over the medium term we project further throughput increase at the port of Riga. Ventspils, the country's
second largest port in terms of the total throughput, has started its recovery, as it returned to positive
growth in 2011, and is on course to return to its pre-downturn tonnage levels.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 port of Riga tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9%, over the medium term we project a
21% increase.
- 2012 port of Riga container throughput forecast to grow 17%, over the medium term we project
a 57% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 7.9%.

Key Industry Trends

Riga Gets Better Connected: The docking of the UBC Onsan, a 260m long and 43m wide dry bulk carrier
with a draught of 14.5m, the largest ship to dock at the port of Riga, highlights the port's desire to handle
larger vessels. This is wise considering that the trend in the maritime sector is toward the development of
larger ships and that the port of Riga must continue to develop in order to handle even larger vessels in
the medium term in order to keep pace with the trend.
Mitsubishi Decides Against Riga: Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi has selected Estonia's Port of Tallinn as
a 'strategic partner' for shipping auto components and supplies to its new plant in Kaluga, Russia.
Mitsubishi is determined to triple its vehicle output in Russia and has decided to ship components to
Russia via the Baltics. The authorities at Riga were reported to have acknowledged that Tallinn had
offered better terms.
Latvian Ports on the Increase: Latvia's ports have achieved strong results so far in 2012, with overall
volumes increasing by 14.8% y-o-y to 46.25mn tonnes in H112. Box volumes also increased with the port
of Riga country's main container facility posting a y-o-y growth of 27.1%.
Contract for Ventspils Terminal Awarded: The LVL9.5mn contract to build a new cargo terminal at the
port of Ventspils was awarded to a Latvian company JSC BMGS. The terminal is expected to be
completed by the end of 2013.

Risks To Outlook

The base for growth at Latvia's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for the country's economy, with
real GDP growth of 4.2% projected in 2012, down from 5.5% in 2011. Our positive forecasts for
country's ports' throughput over the medium term also hold upside risks, with Latvia getting better
connected, displaying a solid domestic demand outlook and developing its role as a gateway for cargo to
and from Russia and Central Asia. This upside risk is further enhanced by Russia's membership of the
WTO, on the back of which Latvian ports expect to tranship more of its neighbour's imports and exports.
The main risk to our forecasts for Latvia remains the persistent eurozone sovereign debt crisis. A further
deepening of the crisis would pose downside risks to most of our forecasts for Latvia's economy and our
port throughput projections.
Russia's development of the Ust-Luga port near St Petersburg, as it seeks to handle a larger percentage of
its own trade needs, creates another downside risk to our forecasts as it is set to place downward pressure
on Baltic states' port throughput.
On the other hand, the investment that Russian firms continue to make into Baltic states' ports and
country's facilities' efforts to diversify away from an over-reliance on liquid bulk create an upside risk.
BMI Industry View ... 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Latvia Shipping SWOT .. 7
Latvia Political SWOT .. 8
Latvia Economic SWOT 9
Latvia Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Global Overview - Container Shipping 11
More Positive Box Outlook In H212 ... 11
Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens 12
Concerted Rate Push Must Continue .. 21
Bunker Price Still A Worry . 24
2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation . 25
Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk 32
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping .. 35
Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping ... 35
Overcapacity A Long Term Problem .. 38
Bankruptcies To Continue ... 41
Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown . 45
Protectionism Trend Takes Off ... 50
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping . 55
Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude 55
Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed .. 56
Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates .. 61
Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl) ... 61
Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping 64
Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators . 66
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs .. 67
Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects ... 68
Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector . 72
Industry Trends And Developments 76
Latvia Container Shipping Market Overview ... 79
Industry Forecast .. 87
Port of Riga Throughput Outlook Q4 2012 .. 87
Port of Ventspils Throughput Outlook Q4 2012 ... 89
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2017 ... 91
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2017 92
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2017 93
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 94
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 94
Company Profiles .. 95
Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2012
Latvian Shipping Company (LASCO) . 95
Maersk Line 98
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) .104
CMA CGM .108
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)115
Hapag-Lloyd ..119
Evergreen Line ..124
APL 128
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 133
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) ...139
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)143
Demographic Outlook . 148
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .149
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 150
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 151
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .151
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