Oman Freight Transport Report 2007

Arguably the single most important development in the Omani freight transport sector is the work currently been carried out to complete the port of Sohar. This is currently one of the largest single port developments in the world and when completed later this year, it will be capable of taking ships of 18m draught. It covers an area 20sqkm and has sucked in investments of over US$12bn. Sohar differs from most ports in the region in that it is a port and manufacturing hub built as one integrated unit. In our first Oman Freight Transport Report, Business Monitor International (BMI) concludes that maritime cargo will grow in tonnage terms at an annual average rate of 5.0% over the next five years.

Various factors support this prediction. According to our forecasts, based on oil and increasingly gas exports, Oman's GDP will grow by an average annual rate of 3.9% over the 2006-2010 forecast period, a little slower than the 4.2% average registered across the preceding five years. While this will provide support for shipping demand, the development of Sohar will be a clear boost. Strategically situated along the world's major shipping lanes, the busy and rapidly growing markets of Dubai, Iran and the Indian sub-continent, Sohar has the twin advantage of being outside the Strait of Hormuz and inside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) customs union. The port is within 300km of one of the world's largest gas reserves, in Qatar. Its position outside the Gulf also guarantees lower insurance premiums The overall outlook for the freight business in Oman is encouraging. By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be air cargo, which will expand by an annual average of 11.7%, supported by a strong showing from Oman Air and the recovery of Gulf Air. We estimate that road haulage should continue to grow a little faster than GDP at 4.3% per annum. In total, freight will grow by 4.6% per annum across all transport modes during the 2006-2010 forecast period.

For the 2006-2010 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.5%, versus 3.9% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$3.64bn in nominal terms by 2010, representing 9.5% of Oman's GDP.