Slovenia Freight Transport Report 2007

Slovenia, which joined the EU in May 2004 and adopted the Euro in January 2007, has an ambitious motorway construction programme. In light of the extensive development in the road network in comparison to rail, we expect that road's share of total tonnes-km will increase gradually. In our latest Slovenia Freight Transport report, BMI concludes that road freight traffic will rise very strongly in the 2007-2011 forecast period, registering average annual growth of 6.8%.

The forecast is based on the twin pillars of motorway expansion and a healthy economy. We forecast GDP growth of 4.4% in 2006, easing to 4.0% in 2008. The average annual rate of expansion in 2007- 2011 is projected at 4.2%. The picture is broadly positive for the industry. The road haulage business also benefits form strong foreign trade through Slovenia's Adriatic port of Koper.

Overall, BMI projects annual average growth in freight carried across all modes at 6.0% in the 2007-2011 period, driven by the effects of EU membership and strong trade flows. Apart from road haulage, rail freight carried will also rise (largely based on Slovenia's transit freight business) but we expect this to be at a much more modest annual average rate of 2.4%. As a result, road's share of total domestic and international freight carried will continue to edge up from 9% in 1999 to 12% in 2003, and a predicted 14% in 2011. The third - and biggest - contribution to the freight business comes from maritime cargo moving through Koper. Given the progressive commercial outlook of the port authorities, tonnage passing through Koper is forecast to increase sharply. We are predicting that maritime freight carried will rise by an annual average of 6.3% in the forecast period. The construction of a new entrance to the Port of Koper and its connection with the new motorway between Koper and Ljubljana should further enhance the throughput of the port in relation to nearby competitors. BMI's freight transport business environment rating gives Slovenia a composite score of 41 out of 70, placing it at the upper end of its European peers. The country is an attractive environment for the freight transport business mainly because of its strengths in long-term political and economic risk, infrastructure growth and the regulatory environment. Freight growth and transport intensity (a measure of the dynamism of foreign trade) are also satisfactory. There is, however, room for improvement in the competitive environment.

The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$3.8bn in nominal terms by 2011, representing 7.3% of Slovenia's GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 59,000 people, or 6.6% of the labour force, in 2005. We see those figures holding broadly steady to 2010.