The Asphyxiated Oil & Gas Industry Cuts Off US$25 Billion in Revenues for Seamless Pipes & Tubes
The global market for Seamless Pipes & Tubes is expected to slump by -13.7% in the year 2020 highlighting a US$25.1billion erosion in market value. Thereafter the market is expected to recover and reach US$230.3 billion by the year 2027 trailing a post-COVID-19 CAGR of 5.6% over the analysis period 2020 to 2027.The COVID-19 pandemic is a rolling disaster, rapidly spreading and decimating industries and markets across the world. Petroleum refining, oil & gas exploration, chemical production, construction, manufacturing, infrastructure, industrial processing have all been alike impacted. The economic recession, rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, plummeting business confidence & investments have begun to bleed into these industries. The shattered oil & gas industry is facing its worst ever crisis, an overstocked supply market and a steep decline in demand. Choking economic activity over the last few months is sending shockwaves of disruption through the industry. From prices dipping to subzero to oil producers in the first time in history having to pay to dispose excess stocks, the industry has seen the worst. In this crisis of unimagined magnitude, CAPEX spending is worst hit. As business confidence plummets rapidly, major oil companies have already slashed planned CAPEX spending by almost US$89 billion in 1st quarter 2020.
Travel bans, manufacturing shutdown of all non-essential plants, closure of offices have wielded the most severe demand shock. A mistimed price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia following Russia`s decision to pull out of a joint production cut agreement additionally aggravated the demand supply imbalance. China in early February during the heat of the pandemic banned entry of oil tankers while tightening the lockdown measures. OPEC talks to cut back on production failed as Russia refused to cooperate. Saudi Arabia during this period offered US$6 to US$9 discount per barrel for European, Asian, and U.S customers. Currently for most oil giants worldwide higher prices are needed to breakeven. Breakeven prices for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Russia include US$85, US$65, US$64, US$51, US$49, US$42, and US$40 respectively. As a culmination of these factors, the world witnessed negative oil prices become a shocking reality. As rising stockpiles overwhelmed storage facilities, the amount of oil stored on massive tankers on sea skyrocketed to over 160 million barrels in April 2020 as compared to the less than 100 million in April 2009 during the Great Recession. The entire O&G value chain is feeling the pain as upstream, midstream and downstream operations collapse under a domino effect. Against this backdrop, seamless pipes and tubes is already showing signs of slumping in the year 2020 as piped soil transport and distribution projects gets thrown into the backburner.
The market will nevertheless bounce back as the economies reopen and economic activity picks up momentum. Post COVID-19 recovery will be driven by recovery in exploration and production activity and strengthening oil prices and the resulting sustained growth in demand for high-grade Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG). Improved infrastructure spending, expanding manufacturing and industrial sectors in developing countries will help drive demand recovery for seamless pipes and tubes in industrial boilers, while growing energy investments worldwide will drive gains for seamless tubes in utility boilers. In the oil and gas sector, increased migration of drilling activity to deeper reserves and the continuous shift towards directional drilling projects will spur opportunities for growth over the long term period. Benefits of seamless pipes and tubes responsible for driving their adoption over and above their conventional welded counterparts include higher pressure rating, higher strength and durability around the circumference of the pipe, uniformity of shape, reduced risk of leaks and pipe failure, resistance to harsh cold and hot environment, superior corrosion resistance, and reduced project costs especially in oil rigs, offshore drilling, pipelines, and machinery production, among others. In the coming years, ultrahigh-strength seamless tubes will increase in commercial value in applications such as construction machinery especially against the backdrop of weight reduction and fuel and energy optimization. Asia-Pacific will remain a major market supported by large automobile, industrial and construction markets. In the United States, growth will be led by the country`s policy led support for shale oil production as evidenced by proposed plans of the government, in the pre-crisis period, to open up hitherto protected offshore territory to oil and gas drilling. Competitors identified in this market include, among others,
- ArcelorMittal SA
- EVRAZ North America
- JFE Steel Corporation
- Jindal SAW Ltd.
- Maharashtra Seamless Limited
- Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation
- Techint Group SpA
- Tenaris S.A.
- TenarisSiderca (Siderca S.A.I.C.)
- Tianjin Pipe (Group) Corporation
- TMK Group
- TMK IPSCO
- UMW Group
- United States Steel Corporation
- Vallourec & Mannesmann Tubes
- Vallourec Star LP
- Wheatland Tube Company