United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The US agriculture sector is unlikely to repeat the performance of 2013, a record year for production and incomes, in 2014. Grain production overall is expected to be lower due to a smaller area planted. That said, the grains sector looks relatively positive compared with livestock, where production will be flat in 2014. The pork sector is facing significant disease concerns from PEDv, while beef production will fall due to increased heifer retention. Fewer cattle facing slaughter will exacerbate record high retail beef prices. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex, and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains.


Key Trends
- Beef production growth to 2017/18: 4% to 11.8mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT .. 9
Agribusiness .. 9
Business Environment 10
Industry Forecast .. 11
Grains Outlook .. 11
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . . 12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . 12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 12
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . . 18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . 18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) 18
Dairy Outlook . 19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . . 20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 21
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . . 21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . . 24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) 25
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . . 25
Soybean Outlook 26
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 27
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) 29
Sugar Outlook . 29
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) 30
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) 30
Livestock Outlook .. 31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . . 32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . 32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018) . 33
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . . 36
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . 36
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . 36
Cotton Outlook 37
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2012-2018) . . 38
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013) . . 43
Commodities Price Analysis 44
Monthly Softs Strategy 44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 53
Monthly Grains Strategy 54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 63
Upstream Analysis 64
Americas GM Outlook 64
Americas Machinery Outlook 69
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .. 74
Downstream Analysis . 80
Food . 80
Food Consumption .. 80
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018 81
Confectionery 81
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018 . 82
Canned Food 83
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018 . 83
Dairy .. 83
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018 . . 84
Drink 85
Alcoholic Drinks .. 85
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018 . 88
Soft Drinks . 89
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018 . 90
Hot Drinks . 91
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018 . 91
Mass Grocery Retail . 92
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018 93
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type . 93
Regional Overview 94
Competitive Landscape .. 100
Table: Agribusiness Competitive Landscape . 100
Company Profile .. 101
Tyson Foods . 101
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data . 112
Monsanto Incorporated .. 113
Table: Monsanto Financial Results . . 124
Demographic Forecast 126
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 127
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 128
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 129
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 129
Methodology .. 130
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 130
Sector-Specific Methodology 131
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