Canada Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

Canada Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The most important challenge for private consumption growth in Canada over the next two to three years is the daunting level of private debt that has continued to build up in the past five years. We therefore do not expect major growth in the value of Canada's food and drink markets over the short term, partly on account of their maturity and partly due to the expectations that Canadian households will continue to face deleveraging, which is likely to hold back discretionary spending. However, opportunities remain manifested by trends such as increased health consciousness and the receptiveness of consumers to innovation and marketing. Busy lifestyles and an increasing number of working women will promote sales of convenient, easy-to-prepare products.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

- 2014 per capita food consumption growth = +1.14% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +1.15%;
- 2014 alcoholic drink sales growth = +3.65% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +5.03%;
- 2014 soft drink sales growth = +3.62% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +3.97%;
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail . 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Consumer Outlook . 15
Food . 17
Food Consumption .. 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 18
Confectionery 18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 20
Canned Food 21
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 21
Processed Fish . 22
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 23
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables .. 25
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 26
Oils & Fats 27
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 27
Dairy .. 29
Table: Cheese Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 30
Drink 31
Alcoholic Drinks .. 31
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 32
Soft Drinks . 32
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 34
Hot Drinks . 34
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 35
Mass Grocery Retail . 37
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 39
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, % . 39
Trade 40
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 41
Macroeconomic Forecasts .. 42
Table: Canada - Economic Activity 44
Market Overview 50
Food . 50
Food Consumption .. 50
Food Processing .. 50
Confectionery 51
Dairy .. 52
Drink 54
Alcoholic Drinks .. 54
Soft Drinks . 55
Hot Drinks . 56
Mass Grocery Retail . 57
Leading Players 57
Table: Structure Of Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number of Outlets, 2003-2012 . . 58
Table: Structure of Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (USDbn), 2003-2012 . . 59
Table: Annual Average Value of Sales by Format (2012) . 59
Industry Trends And Developments .. 60
Food . 60
Key Industry Trends And Developments 60
Drink 69
Key Industry Trends And Developments 69
Mass Grocery Retail . 75
Key Industry Trends And Developments 75
Competitive Landscape . 79
Table: Key Players in Canada's Food Sector . . 79
Table: Key Players in Canada's Drink Sectors 79
Table: Key Players in Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Industry . 80
Company Profile . 82
Saputo .. 82
George Weston Ltd 85
Maple Leaf Foods .. 87
Corby Spirit And Wine Ltd 90
Cott Corp . 92
Loblaw Companies Ltd .. 94
Metro Inc . 97
Sobeys 100
Walmart . 103
Global Industry Overview 105
Table: Food And Drink Core Views . 117
Demographic Forecast 118
Demographic Outlook . 118
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 119
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 120
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 121
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 121
Glossary 122
Food & Drink . 122
Mass Grocery Retail .. 122
Methodology .. 124
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 124
Sector-Specific Methodology 125
Sources 125
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology .. 126
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators . 127
Table: Weighting 128
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