Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updatesFollowing a year in which BMI believes steady growth was seen across the entire Turkish freight transport sector, 2014 will signal further increase in volumes, albeit at a slower pace, in line with our macroeconomic forecasts for the country. Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 3.95% in 2014 following a growth of 4.33% in 2013. Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 6% in 2014. The mode has made a prompt recovery from the downturn and enjoys the benefits of not having to make any reductions in road haulage volumes, such as those pledged by the neighbouring EU.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT .. 9
Freight Transport . 9
Political 11
Economic . 13
Business Environment 14
Industry Forecast .. 15
Road 17
Table: Road Freight (Turkey 2011-2018) . . 19
Rail . 19
Table: Turkey And Its Neighbours Railway Network Overview . 20
Table: Rail Freight (Turkey 2011-2018) . 21
Air Freight 21
Table: Air Freight (Turkey 2011-2018) . . 22
Maritime 22
Table: Maritime Freight (Turkey 2011-2018) . 23
Trade .. 24
Table: Trade Overview (Turkey 2011-2018) . . 24
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Turkey 2011-2018) 24
Table: Top Import Destinations 25
Table: Top Export Destinations 26
Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments .. 32
Rail . 32
Maritime 33
Intermodal and Logistics 35
Company Profile . 36
Turkish State Railways (TCDD) - Q3 2014 36
Turkish Cargo - Q3 2014 .. 40
Turkon Line . 43
Political Outlook . 45
Domestic Politics 45
Table: Politics Table 49
Long-Term Political Outlook 50
Oil Price Outlook 55
Diesel 55
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 55
New York's One-Off Heat Up .. 55
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected . 58
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward . 62
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks .. 64
Risks To Outlook .. 68
Jet Fuel 69
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl . 69
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 69
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth . 71
Risks To Outlook .. 74
Bunker Fuel . 75
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) . . 75
The Storm Clears For Shipping .. 76
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 78
Long-Term Threats Linger .. 79
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder . 81
Risks To Outlook .. 82
Macroeconomic Forecasts .. 83
Table: Turkey - GDP By Expenditure 90
Demographic Forecast .. 91
Demographic Outlook 91
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 92
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) . . 93
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 94
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 94
Methodology . 95
Industry Forecast Methodology . 95
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 96
Sources .. 97
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