United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The UK economy has outperformed most major developed states in 2015 and will continue tosurpass the eurozone in 2016. In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by thegovernment, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange rate policies, we remain bullish on the long-termeconomic prospects for the UK relative to the eurozone over the longer term. However, the UK's economicrecovery is still overly dependent on household consumption, and we forecast a slight deceleration in 2015and 2016 to 2.4% of GDP, as the bulk of GDP gains from the labour market recovery are now behind us.As a result, we remain cautious about growth in the food and drink industry, especially in value terms, ascompetition for value and consumers' more careful spending habits will limit potential for the industry inthe near term.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2015 total food consumption growth: +3.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019:+5.0%.
- 2015 per capita food consumption growth: +2.4%; CAGR 2014 to 2019: +4.4%.

- 2015 total soft drinks value sales growth: +2.8%; CAGR 2014 to 2019: +3.7%.

- 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales growth: +2.0%; CAGR 2014 to 2019: +2.4%.

- 2015 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales growth: +0.1%; CAGR 2014 to 2019: +1.4%.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 18
Canned/Prepared Food 18
Confectionery 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 20
Snack Food 21
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 22
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 22
Pasta 22
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 23
Prepared Fish 23
Other Processed Foods 24
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 24
Oils And Fats 24
Dairy 24
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 25
Drink 27
Hot Drinks 27
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 28
Soft Drinks 29
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 30
Alcoholic Drinks 32
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 33
Mass Grocery Retail 35
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 36
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) 36
Trade 37
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 37
Macroeconomic Forecast 38
Economic Analysis 38
Real GDP By Expenditure 41
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 43
Industry Risk Reward Index 44
Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315 45
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 50
Food 50
Food Processing 50
Prepared Food 50
Confectionery 51
Private Labels 52
Livestock 53
Organic Food 54
Drink 55
Soft Drinks 55
Alcoholic Drinks 56
Mass Grocery Retail 59
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (United Kingdom 2006-2015) 61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2006-2015) 61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2006-2015) 62
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format (2011) 62
Industry Trends And Developments 63
Food 63
Key Industry Trends And Developments 63
Drink 72
Key Industry Trends And Developments 72
Mass Grocery Retail 80
Key Industry Trends And Developments 80
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: Key Players In The UK's Food Sector 87
Table: Key Players In The UK's Drink Sector 88
Table: Key Players In The UK's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 89
Company Profile 91
Associated British Foods 91
Unilever 94
Table: Unilever Financial Results 101
Dairy Crest Group 102
Mondelez International 106
Premier Foods 110
Diageo 114
Table: Diageo Financial Results 120
Tesco 121
Table: Tesco's Financial Highlights 128
Sainsbury's 129
Asda 132
Global Industry Overview 135
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 138
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 146
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 151
Demographic Forecast 153
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 154
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 154
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 155
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 155
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 156
Glossary 158
Food & Drink 158
Mass Grocery Retail 158
Methodology 160
Industry Forecast Methodology 160
Sector-Specific Methodology 161
Sources 161
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 162
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 163
Table: Weighting 164
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