China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2014

China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
A more 'rational' use of pharmaceuticals through pharmacoeconomics, and a crackdown on illegal rebates and corruption in China's pharmaceutical market could hinder the sector's growth potential. However, over the long term, the government is likely to improve its investment in healthcare in order to retain public support.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CNY532.4bn (US$86.6bn) in 2013 to CNY616.1bn (US$99.3bn) in 2014; +15.7% in local currency and +14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q313.
- Healthcare: CNY3,230.8bn (US$525.4bn) in 2013 to CNY3,692.0bn (US$595.2bn) in 2014; +14.3% in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains unchanged from Q313.
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic ... 12
Business Environment .. 13
Industry Forecast .. 14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018)................. 15
Healthcare Market Forecast .. 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018).............. . 17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018)........... 18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018)............ . 18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018)............. 21
Patented Drug Market Forecast . 22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018).............23
Generic Drug Market Forecast .. 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018).............. 25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 26
Regulatory Regime . 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2010-2018)........ . 29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018)...................31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2012-2018)...............32
Other Healthcare Data . 33
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 36
Economic Analysis ... 36
More Cities To Witness Price Declines ... 37
Government, PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies .. 39
Economic Reforms Another Headwind ... 39
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018).......................... . . 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 42
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings ... 42
China Risk/Reward Ratings ... 48
Rewards ... 48
Risks 48
Market Overview ... 50
Industry Trends And Developments 51
Epidemiology 51
Table: Death Rate Of Major Diseases In Urban And Rural Areas (2012)................... . 54
Healthcare Sector .. 55
Research And Development .. 65
Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China....................... . . 65
Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In R&D Operations In China.................... . . 72
Clinical Trials ... 74
Biotechnology Sector .. 78
Regulatory Development .. 86
Regulatory Regime . 86
Table: Important China GMP Deadlines...........................90
Intellectual Property Issues .. 91
Pricing Regime .. 97
Reimbursement Regime . 107
Competitive Landscape .. 111
Pharmaceutical Industry ... 111
Table: Top 20 China / Hong Kong-Based Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation.........111
Pharmaceutical Wholesale . 112
Recent Developments 113
Traditional Chinese Medicine . 124
Company Profile .. 128
AstraZeneca . 128
Bayer .. 134
China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group 138
Eli Lilly ... 140
GlaxoSmithKline ... 144
North China Pharmaceutical Corporation .. 149
Novartis ... 152
Merck & Co .. 157
Merck KGaA 161
Pfizer .. 164
Roche .. 168
Sanofi .. 174
Shanghai Pharmaceutical ... 179
Sinopharm 182
Demographic Forecast ... 187
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)...................... . 188
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)....................189
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020......................... 190
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020....................... . 190
Glossary ... 191
Methodology 193
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 193
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model ... 193
Notes On Methodology .. 194
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 195
Ratings Overview . 196
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators....................... . . 196
Indicator Weightings 197
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