China Shipping Report Q4 2015

China Shipping Report Q4 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China will continue to be the most important market for global container shipping in 2015 and over the years to come. Although there are some risks to the export picture, we expect positive growth across the country's many major box ports, which dominate the global top 10. China's economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private
consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. This is good news for the country's container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumes as a result.

Headline Industry Data

- 2015 port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.8%, with container growth of 6.2% forecast for the year.
- 2015 port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to enlarge by 2.5%, with average growth of 2.5% during our forecast period to 2019.
- 2015 real trade growth forecast at 7.0% - a very slight decrease from 2014's estimated 7.1%.
BMI Industry View 7
China - Q315 7
Shipping 9
Political 11
Economy 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Port Of Shanghai Throughput 15
Port Of Shenzhen Throughput 19
Table: Major Ports Data (China 2013-2019) 21
Table: Trade Overview (2012-2019) 25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (2012-2019) 25
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 27
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 28
Market Overview 29
China - Q415 29
Company Profile 36
Sinotrans 36
Shipping - Global Industry View 40
Container Shipping: Three Key Themes 40
Table: Major Beneficiaries 40
Table: Order Book For New Mega Vessel Class 42
Table: Vessel Capacity By Trade Route 45
Global Company Strategy 47
Maersk Line 47
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 59
Evergreen Line 77
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 85
Macroeconomic Forecast 92
Economic Analysis 92
Demographic Forecast 96
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 97
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 97
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 98
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 98
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 99

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