Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2015

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2015


Outlook for 2015-19



  • The main threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The lack of political freedoms will continue to trigger resentment among regime critics. However, firm control of the security forces means that the president will maintain overwhelming influence over the political scene.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • After peaking at 7.7% of GDP in 2015, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow gradually over the outlook period, reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2019, as falling oil revenue and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending.
  • The economy will contract by an average of 2.7% a year in 2015-17 as oil production drops and public investment falls, before staging a modest recovery in 2018-19 on the back of rising natural gas output.
  • The current-account deficit will peak at 17.5% of GDP in 2015 amid falling oil exports, before a shrinking services deficit and falling profit repatriation by oil firms cause the deficit to narrow in 2016-19.


Review



  • A national dialogue between the regime, its backers and some opposition forces concluded on November 16th. Although the dialogue was unusual in that it gave a voice to regime critics, only minor reforms were agreed.
  • The country's main opposition party, the Convergencia para la Democracia Social, together with some other critical forces, withdrew from the talks on the first day, saying that they were more like a monologue than a dialogue.
  • Ahead of the dialogue, the president signed a decree granting a general amnesty to all those who have been convicted of political crimes. However, the opposition accused the authorities of not fully implementing the decree.
  • Teodorín Nguema Obiang Mangue, the second vice-president and eldest son of the president, has agreed to sell US$30.3m-worth of assets in the US to settle a civil forfeiture case with the US authorities.
  • The authorities have announced plans to establish an industrial city at Mbini on the mainland. However, the country's unattractive investment climate will slow down the government's economic diversification measures.
  • The government has signed an agreement with Nigeria-based Taleveras Group to construct a 1.2m-cu-metre oil storage facility on Bioko Island. No details on the timeframe, cost or financing of the project have been released.


Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2015
Highlights
Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability
Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch
Outlook for 2015-19: International relations
Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends
Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2015-19: International assumptions
Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth
Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation
Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2015-19: External sector
Outlook for 2015-19: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure

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