Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2016

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2016


Outlook for 2016-20



  • The main threat to political stability in 2016-20 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The lack of political freedoms will continue to cause resentment among regime critics. However, firm control of the security forces means that the president will maintain overwhelming influence over the political scene.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist. As a result, the economy will remain heavily dependent on developments in the oil and gas sector.
  • The economy will contract by an average of 2.6% a year in 2016-20 as oil production drops and public investment falls on the back of declining oil revenue.
  • The fiscal deficit will narrow to 1.9% of GDP in 2018 as oil revenue shortfalls and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending, before widening slightly in 2019-20 as oil output continues to drop and prices ease.
  • The current-account deficit, as a proportion of GDP, will fall to 5.8% in 2017 as oil prices recover and import demand is weak, before widening sharply in 2018-20 as oil and gas exploration sucks in goods and services imports.


Review



  • Mr Obiang has been confirmed as the presidential candidate of the ruling Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial for the 2016 election. An exact date for the vote is yet to be set. There are few threats to him winning another seven-year term.
  • In late December France's top court rejected a request from Equatorial Guinea's second vice-president, "Teodorín" Nguema Obiang Mangue, to drop a formal investigation against him for suspected money-laundering.
  • The authorities have announced that they plan to hold another licensing round in 2016 for all remaining deep and ultra-deep water blocks. Low oil prices and concerns over the regulatory environment are likely to moderate interest from investors.
  • UK-based Ophir Energy has signed initial agreements with six firms to sell gas from its Fortuna offshore liquefied natural gas project. Ophir says that it will make a final investment decision for the Fortuna project by mid-2016.
  • RoyalGate Energy, a privately held company, has announced that it will drill an exploration well in its offshore Block Z in the first quarter of 2016. Subdued oil prices will complicate the financing of any development of the block.


Country Report Equatorial Guinea 1st Quarter 2016
Highlights
Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability
Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch
Outlook for 2016-20: International relations
Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends
Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2016-20: International assumptions
Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth
Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation
Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2016-20: External sector
Outlook for 2016-20: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure