Country Report Equatorial Guinea 4th Quarter 2015

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 4th Quarter 2015

Outlook for 2015-19

  • The main threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The lack of political freedoms will continue to cause resentment among regime critics. However, firm control of the security forces means that the president will maintain overwhelming influence over the political scene.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the fiscal deficit, after peaking at 7.3% of GDP in 2014, to narrow gradually, to 2.4% of GDP in 2019, as oil revenue shortfalls and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending.
  • The economy will contract by an average of 3% a year in 2015-19 as oil production drops and public investment falls on the back of declining oil revenue.
  • The current-account deficit, as a proportion of GDP, will widen to 11.1% in 2015 as oil exports fall, before narrowing in 2016-17 as oil prices recover. Thereafter it will widen as oil and gas exploration sucks in imports.


  • The second vice-president, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue-the son of the president-has by presidential decree been promoted to colonel in the army, seemingly cementing his position as the chosen successor to his father.
  • According to a communiqué from the government's press office, a fiscal surplus was recorded in the first six months of 2015. However, a record of extra-budgetary spending suggests that the fiscal balance is less favourable than the authorities indicate.
  • On the back of falling oil prices, Equatorial Guinea's foreign-exchange reserves fell to US$1.89bn at end-April, down by 54% on year-earlier levels. Falling reserves will force the government to cut spending.
  • The IMF issued a gloomy assessment of Equatorial Guinea's economy following the conclusion of its Article IV consultation on July 20th. It criticised the government for investing too heavily in physical infrastructure at the expense of the education and health sectors.
  • The regional central bank, Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale (BEAC), lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in July, to an all-time low of 2.45%.

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 4th Quarter 2015
Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability
Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch
Outlook for 2015-19: International relations
Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends
Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2015-19: International assumptions
Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth
Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation
Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2015-19: External sector
Outlook for 2015-19: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure