United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q1 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The UK economy is on track to be one of the fastest growing developed states in 2014, and certainly the fastest growing among the G7. Given the strength of the first and second quarter GDP readings, along with evidence from higher frequency data which suggest no let up in the rate of economic expansion, we have nudged up our full-year 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.9% previously. However, we continue to warn that without a recovery in fixed investment and real wages, the current growth burst will be unsustainable. In fact, most of the recent boom in consumer spending has been encouraged by rising property prices in London and other localised areas, which is unsustainable for retailers. As a result, we are cautious about growth in the food and drink area, especially in value terms as competition for value and consumer's more careful spending habits will limit potential for the industry in the near term.

Headline Industry Data
- 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency terms): +3.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +4.2%.
- 2014 per capita food consumption growth (local currency terms): +2.4%; CAGR 2013 to 2018: +3.6%.
- 2014 total soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +4.8%; CAGR 2013 to 2018: +4.9%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +2.0%; CAGR 2013 to 2018: +2.3%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales (local currency) growth: +2.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +2.6%.
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ... 9
Food .. 9
Drink ... 11
Mass Grocery Retail ... 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Consumer Outlook .. 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018) . 18
Canned/Prepared Food ... 18
Confectionery ... 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018) . 21
Snack Food .. 22
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) 23
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2013-2018) 23
Pasta .. 24
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 24
Prepared Fish .. 24
Other Processed Foods ... 25
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 25
Oils And Fats ... 26
Dairy .. 26
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 26
Drink ... 28
Hot Drinks ... 28
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 29
Soft Drinks ... 30
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 32
Alcoholic Drinks ... 33
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) 35
Mass Grocery Retail ... 37
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) . 38
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) 38
Trade ... 39
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018) 40
Macroeconomic Forecast 41
Economic Analysis .. 41
Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity . 47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 48
Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index ... 48
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115 49
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q115 (scores out of 10) 53
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Ratings ... 54
Market Overview ... 55
Food 55
Food Processing ... 55
Prepared Food . 55
Confectionery ... 56
Private Labels .. 57
Livestock . 58
Organic Food ... 59
Drink ... 60
Soft Drinks ... 60
Alcoholic Drinks ... 61
Mass Grocery Retail ... 64
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (United Kingdom 2005-2014) . 65
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2005-2014) 66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2005-2014) 66
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format (2011) . 66
Industry Trends And Developments 67
Food 67
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 67
Drink ... 84
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 84
Mass Grocery Retail ... 97
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 97
Competitive Landscape .. 110
Table: Key Players In The UK's Food Sector . 110
Table: Key Players In The UK's Drink Sector . 111
Table: Key Players In The UK's Mass Grocery Retail Sector . 112
Company Profile .. 114
Associated British Foods . 114
Unilever .. 117
Table: Unilever Financial Results . 125
Dairy Crest Group 126
Mondelez International ... 130
Premier Foods . 135
Diageo ... 139
Table: Diageo Financial Results 144
Tesco . 145
Table: Tesco's Financial Highlights . 152
Sainsbury's .. 153
Asda ... 156
Global Industry Overview 160
Table: Dollar General And Family Dollar Historic Quarterly Same-Store Sales Growth (% Change Y-O-Y) . 164
Table: Selected US And Global Spirits Companies - Historical Financial Indicators 167
Table: Select US Beverage Companies - Historic Eva Spread 169
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views . 170
Demographic Forecast ... 172
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025) . 174
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025) . 174
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025) . 175
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 175
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025) . 176
Glossary ... 177
Food & Drink . 177
Mass Grocery Retail . 177
Methodology 179
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 179
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 180
Sources . 180
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 181
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 182
Table: Weighting . 183
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