United States Metals Report Q1 2015

United States Metals Report Q1 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years. Accelerating economic expansion will encourage metal production and consumption, but total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.
Accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters will lead to modest growth in the metals sector. We now forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015, up from our previous forecast of 2.6%, and estimate growth of 2.3% in 2014, up from our earlier estimate of 2.1%. Gains in non-residential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. Nevertheless, we expect US economic expansion to remain below historical trends in the coming years. Combined with currently elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports, the metals sector will not return to pre-financial crisis levels of consumption and production.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Imports To Constrain Industry Growth 11
Several Top Firms To Dominate 11
Capacity Utilisation To See Subdued Growth 11
Steel-Intensive Sectors To Support Demand 12
Cheap Imports To Temper Industry Growth 14
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (United States 2010-2018) 15
Aluminium: Automotive Sector To Support Demand 15
Auto Production To Be Greatest Driver Of Demand 15
Minimal Production Growth 17
Table: US - Aluminium Forecast (2010-2018) 18
Copper: Modest Growth, But No Return To Previous Highs 18
Housing Recovery & Manufacturing Growth To Support Demand 19
Production To Fall Short Of Demand 20
Table: US Copper Forecasts (2010-2018) 21
Zinc: US To Remain Net Importer 21
Majority Of Zinc Demand Tied To Steel 22
Reliance On Imports To Persist On Domestic Shortfalls 23
Table: US Zinc Forecasts (2010-2018) 25
Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25
Regulatory Development 26
Tax Regime 26
Minimal Corruption 27
Table: US Political Overview 27
Commodities Forecast 29
Commodity Strategy 29
Ferrous Metals 29
Non-Ferrous Metals: 32
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness 32
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary 33
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist 35
Zinc: No Sustained Gains 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 40
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 40
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 40
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 40
Long-Term Outlook 41
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 42
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 43
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 44
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 45
Risks To Price Forecast 45
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013 47
Accelerating Economic Growth To Boost Steelmakers 48
Refining Capacity To Hold Steady 48
Company Profile 49
Nucor 49
Company Strategy 50
Latest Results 51
Table: Nucor - Supply Chain Analysis 51
Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data 52
US Steel 53
Company Overview 55
Company Strategy 55
Latest Results 56
Table: US Steel - Supply Chain Analysis 57
Table: Financial Data 58
Address Details 58
ArcelorMittal 59
Company Overview 61
Company Strategy 61
Latest Financial Results 63
Company Details 63
Financial Data 63
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 63
Alcoa 64
Company Strategy 66
Latest Results 67
Table: Alcoa - Supply Chain Analysis 67
Company Details 68
Methodology 69
Cross Checks 69
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