Country Report Singapore August 2017

Country Report Singapore August 2017

  • August 2017 •
  • Report ID: 265663 •
  • Format: PDF

Outlook for 2017-21



  • The People's Action Party (PAP) will choreograph a leadership succession over the forecast period. The process is expected to be completed before the next legislative election, which is due by 2021.
  • The government will continue to intervene to guide the development of industry, including schemes to encourage smaller firms to expand overseas and innovate.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS, the central bank) to maintain a loose monetary policy stance in 2017-19, before it looks to "normalise" its policy settings from 2020.
  • On the back of healthier external demand conditions, we expect real GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2017, before decelerating to 2.1% per year on average in 2018-21 owing to economic slowdowns in China and the US in this period.
  • Consumer price inflation will make a modest comeback in 2017. Rising global prices for oil and industrial products will support prices (albeit unevenly), which will increase by an average annual rate of 1.2% in 2017-21.
  • Despite softer export growth in 2018-19, Singapore will continue to run a hefty current-account surplus, equivalent to 17% of GDP in 2021. The services, primary and secondary income accounts will remain in deficit.


Review



  • On August 6th Halimah Yacob announced her candidacy to the presidential election due by September 2017. She is the leading contender for the race.
  • On July 18th-19th Singapore's defence minister, Ng Eng Hen, visited the Philippines, holding talks with his counterpart, the Philippine secretary of national defence, Delfin Lorenzana.
  • On August 2nd-3rd Hong Kong's new chief executive, Carrie Lam, visited Singapore in what was the first visit by a Hong Kong chief executive to Singapore for nine years.
  • On July 26th, according to data published by the Department of Statistics (DoS), manufacturing output was up by 13.1% year on year in June. Excluding the volatile biomedical manufacturing sector, output was up by 11.9%.
  • On July 24th the DoS published data showing that the rate of consumer price inflation had slowed to 0.5% year on year in June, from 1.4% in May.
  • On July 17th the DoS published external trade data showing that non-oil domestic exports were up by 8.2% year on year in June, to S$14.5bn (US$10.4bn), supported by the performance of both electronic and non-electronic exports.


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