Economic growth and sound governmental policies are expected to support the transition from a used car market to a new car market in the -Stan and -Jan region.
KAZAKHSTAN Major sales centers are Almaty, Astana, Atyrau, and Aktobe Share of SUV sales is expected to increase 5 key dealer chains account for approximately 80% of light vehicle (LV) sales
UKRAINE Used car sales account for 65– x % of the market OEMs exiting the market due to geopolitical tensions and automotive policy that favors importers Chinese OEMs enter the low-cost market
UZBEKISTAN Monopolistic market driven by GM Uzbekistan and protected by high import barriers Market for natural gas vehicles (NGVs) Government trying to increase manufacturing localization
AZERBAIJAN Euro 4 emission standards introduced Transition from used vehicle to new vehicle market High income differentiation driving SUV and C-Compact segments
BELARUS OEMs are creating an export-oriented production hub Transition from used vehicle to new vehicle market Influx of budget vehicles from Russia Dealer penetration into regions
Top 5 Key Takeaways
The market for LVs is projected to cross x million units post-2021, with Kazakhstan’s market expected to surpass Uzbekistan’s. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan will remain the top markets for automotive investment in the region—expected to account for x % of regional LV sales in 2021. GM, Renault-Nissan, Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Toyota are expected to account for over x % of LV sales volume in the region. The LV market is projected to cross x million units post-2021, with Kazakhstan’s market expected to surpass Uzbekistan’s. Annual LV production volume in the region is expected to surpass x units, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan being the top producers. Kazakhstan is projected to evolve as a production hub as a gataway to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) market, with increasing localization ( x % by 2018).
Significant state support is expected in the region to attract not only investment in LV production, but also local auto component manufacturing.
New LV sales in Azerbaijan and Belarus will be driven by customers switching from used to new vehicles because of state policy (new emission standards or high customs tariffs for used vehicle imports). Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to increase localization (e.g., by 2018 overall localization in Kazakhstan is expected to increase from x % to x %), making locally manufactured vehicles more affordable and decreasing currency-related price fluctuations. Significant state support is expected in the region, aiming to attract not only investment in LV production, but also local auto component manufacturing. Foreign OEMs will be increasingly reliant on joint ventures with state organizations to penetrate the markets (e.g., GM Uzbekistan, BelGee). Investors are expected to seek opportunities in niche markets, such as NGVs in Uzbekistan— x % of the country’s LV parc is expected to switch to natural gas by 2020. Customers in the region will continue to be price-sensitive; however, use of credit for purchases is expected to increase.
Global Market Sales Forecast
LV sales in the region are expected to approach x million units by 2021. •Global sales are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of x % from 2014 to 2021. •Asia, North America, and Western Europe will account for x % of global LV sales in 2021. •Annual LV sales in the Stan & Jan region are expected to approach x million units in 2021, at a CAGR of x % from 2014 to 2021. Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Belarus will account for x % of the region’s 2021 sales.
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