Egypt Metals Report Q4 2014

Egypt Metals Report Q4 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We forecast modest growth in the Egyptian steel sector over the coming years, in line with our outlook for the wider economy. We are taking into account the influence of the weak Egyptian pound on the sector and whether depreciation is sufficient to compete in an over-supplied regional market. We expect the worsening political situation to weigh on growth.

We remain positive about the effects of Egypt's transition towards a democratic government, as investors will begin to look more favourably towards the country as a potential market to work with. We have seen these positive effects on the country are already beginning to show. For 2014, we forecast steady Egyptian steel production growth on the back of greater investment in expanding production capacity and more stability in the country following the 2013 ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as greater investment pouring in from Gulf countries looking diversify their regional portfolios.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Steel: Need For Imports To Fill The Deficit .. 11
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Egypt 2010-2018) 14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Egypt 2005-2012). . 14
Table: Egypt - Steel Production Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated) . 15
Regulatory Development .. 16
Tax Regime 16
Corruption: A Key Concern . 16
Table: Egypt - Political Overview . 17
Commodities Forecast . 19
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast. 19
Short-Term Outlook 19
Core View . 20
Surplus Set To Slim 20
Production: Reining In Growth . 21
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 23
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 25
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 25
Risks To Price Outlook 26
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts.27
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average).. 27
Commodity Strategy . 29
Ferrous Metals: . 29
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight . 29
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up .. 30
Non-Ferrous Metals: .. 32
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 32
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 33
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 34
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely . 35
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals .. 36
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely . 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Ezz Steel Facilities 41
Table: MENA - Largest Metal Companies43
Company Profile 44
Ezz Steel 44
Table: Ezz Steel - Financial Data46
Methodology .. 47
Cross Checks 47
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