The key stories regarding Romania's macroeconomics at this moment are the sustainability of the high growth rates (3.7% y/y in 2015) and the impact of the datio-in solutum bill - a bill under which banks customers could abandon the mortgage contracts with no further liability in addition to the collateral.
There is little doubt that there was the consumption that pushed up GDP last year.
Consumption has contributed 4pp to the GDP growth in 2015, while gross fix capital formation only 1.8pp. Consumption increased by 5.3% y/y in full 2015 and accelerated to 6.4% y/y in Q4. The investments have increased since 2014, when they decreased by 3.1% y/y, but they remain at a low level both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP compared to the pre-crisis peak of 2008.
oRomania raises EUR1.25bn upon re-opening 10-yr, 20-yr Eurobonds
oPublic debt to GDP ratio down 1.2pp y/y to 38.6% at end-2015
oGDP up 3.7% y/y in 2015, driven by consumption
oNet investments rise by 8.4% y/y in 2015 from low base
oIndustrial growth eases to 2% y/y in Q4; 2.8% y/y in full 2015
oConstruction works up 11.7% y/y in Q4; 10.4% up y/y in 2015 on maintenance, repair of roads
oRetail sales 15.6% y/y up in January; accelerates from 8.9%b y/y in 2015
oHeadline inflation plunges to minus 2.1% y/y in January on VAT rate cut and further sinks into negative area to minus 2.8% y/y in February, on energy prices
GDP grew by 1.4% on the quarter in Q2 and by 4.2% on the year. However, July and August data for retail sales and industrial production suggest a more subdued performance in Q3. We expect the economy to grow by 3.6% on average this year, largely driven by rising consumption and inventories. However, growth will decelerate further in the coming...
Country Profile: Haircare in Romania Summary The Romanian haircare sector is led by the shampoo category, while the perms & relaxers category is expected to register the fastest growth in both value and volume terms during 2017-2022.Hypermarkets & supermarkets accounted for the leading share in the...
Country Profile: Spirits in Romania Summary The Romanian spirits sector is led by the brandy category in both value and volume terms.The tequila & mezcal category is expected to register the fastest growth in value terms during 2017-2022. Hypermarkets & supermarkets is the leading distribution...
Country Profile: Dairy & Soy Food in Romania Summary The dairy & soy food sector in Romania is led by the cheese category in value terms, while the yogurt category is expected to register the fastest value growth during 2017-2022.Hypermarkets & supermarkets is the leading channel for distribution...
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a Social Democratic Party (PSD)-led government to remain in power until the next general election, scheduled for late 2020. With its junior coalition partner, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), the PSD has close to an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies (the lower...