Country Forecast Tunisia April 2018 Updater

Country Forecast Tunisia April 2018 Updater

  • April 2018 •
  • Report ID: 4983527 •
  • Format: PDF


  • Tunisia will continue to face severe social, security and economic challenges. A fragmented political landscape will mean that ideologically diverse coalition governments are the norm, making agreement over the measures needed to tackle the challenges harder to reach.
  • Instability in the government will prompt some in the establishment to call for a more powerful presidency, but this will provoke fierce resistance from civil society groups, given concerns over a return to autocracy.
  • Bouts of violent protest and social unrest are likely to continue because of public discontent with the government, although many Tunisians who have vivid memories of the pre-revolution regime will not want the downfall of democracy.
  • Despite tighter security, it is likely to prove impossible to prevent all acts of terrorism. Returning jihadis from Syria and Iraq, as well as the ongoing instability in neighbouring Libya, will make it hard for the Tunisian authorities to provide security.
  • Although Tunisia's governments will push for the sort of liberalising economic reforms encouraged by key donors, the country's trade unions and employers' association will oppose these policies, as a result of which the fiscal deficit will come down only slowly.
  • Economic growth will pick up moderately as the forecast period progresses. Only limited pro-business reforms are likely against the backdrop of a fractious political scene, and tourism and industry remain exposed to terrorism and social unrest respectively.
  • The Tunisian dinar's downward trend is set to continue as social and political uncertainty remains high. In addition, election-related volatility is likely in 2019.
  • Export performance will slowly improve as industrial commodity production increases and tourists return to the country, which will also be supported by a weak dinar against the euro and the US dollar. However, import demand will also pick up, and so the current-account deficit will remain substantial


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