Merck & Co

Merck & Co

  • October 2020 •
  • 88 pages •
  • Report ID: 5779830 •
  • Format: PDF
PharmaVitae explores Merck and Co’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot
Overview – Merck and Co’s revenue growth will be fairly stable over the forecast period, as growth from Keytruda and Gardasil will be offset by declines from Januvia, Janumet, and the spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.
Key themes – [1] Keytruda will see strong growth over the forecast period until loss of exclusivity in 2028, although 2020 growth will be negatively impacted by two large price reductions in Japan [2] Merck’s metabolic portfolio will decline significantly due to patent expiries for key drugs Januvia and Janumet [3] Merck’s late-stage pipeline is heavily skewed towards label expansions for its existing oncology portfolio, with only a few new drug launches expected over the forecast period.

Model updates (3 August 2020)

Gardasil forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
ProQuad forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
Pneumovax 23 forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US and Europe.

Model updates (2 June 2020)

Lenvima alliance revenue forecast adjusted higher
NuvaRing forecast adjusted lower due to generic impact in the US.

Model updates (4 March 2020)

Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to 2020 impact of two significant price reductions in Japan
Gardasil forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand globally
Lenvima alliance revenue forecast added
Lynparza alliance revenue forecast added
Zetia forecast removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Vytorin removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
NuvaRing removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Implanon removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Singulair removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Cozaar removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Nasonex removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Arcoxia removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
Follistim removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.

Model updates (4 November 2019)

Keytruda forecast adjusted higher due to continued momentum in all of NSCLC, including first-line monotherapy in China, as well as continued uptake in other cancer indications, including recently launched renal cell carcinoma and adjuvant melanoma indications
Gardasil forecast adjusted lower in the near term due to supply constraints, which will alleviate in 2023 upon completion of additional production capabilities.

Model updates (7 August 2019)

Keytruda forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in first-line NSCLC and other label expansions
Gardasil forecast adjusted higher due to increasing vaccination rates globally, positive pricing, and the ongoing commercial launch in China
ProQuad / M-M-R II / Varivax forecast adjusted higher due to higher vaccination rates and favorable pricing
Remicade forecast adjusted lower due to continued biosimilar competition and pricing pressure in Europe
Simponi forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar competition in the immunology and inflammation space impacting growth
Gefapixant forecast added
Vericiguat forecast added.