EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 5

S&P affirms Bulgaria at BB+/B with stable outlook, lifts 2015 growth forecast 5

Fitch keeps Bulgaria's investment grade rating, lifts growth outlook, alerts of fiscal slippage 5

Bulgaria's average per capita income up 5.6% y/y, expenditure up 1.9% y/y in Q3 6

REAL SECTOR 6

1. GDP 6

Bulgaria's Q3 GDP growth confirmed at 2.9% y/y 6

2. Inflation 7

Bulgaria's CPI deflation softens to 0.4% y/y in November 7

Bulgaria's annual PPI deflation deepens to 3.8% in October 8

3. Industry and Trade 9

Bulgaria's business climate worsens in November 9

Bulgaria's industrial output growth speeds to 1% y/y in October 9

Bulgaria's industry expects to cut investments by 2.4% in 2016 - survey 10

Bulgaria's construction output contraction deepens in October 10

Bulgaria's retail sales contraction narrows in October 11

4. Labour Market 12

Bulgaria's unemployment rate climbs to 9.5% in October - labour agency 12

Bulgaria's unemployment rate drops to 8.3% in Q3 - labour force survey 12

Bulgaria's Q3 labour productivity data mixed 12

5. Tourism 13

Bulgaria's accommodation revenue rises 4.2% y/y in October 13

Foreign tourists to Bulgaria up 17.2% y/y in October 13

FISCAL SECTOR 14

Bulgaria turns to budget deficit at end-November 14

Bulgarian parliament adopts 2016 budget 15

EU says will not punish Bulgaria for 2014 fiscal slippage 15

Bulgaria's fiscal reserve rises 1.6% in October 15

Bulgaria sells EUR33mn of 10-year T-bonds, yield drops 16

Bulgaria sells below-target EUR13.5mn of 3-year T-notes despite ample demand 16

Bulgaria reopens 20-year Eurobond, raises EUR50mn at 3.987% yield 16

Bulgaria sells EUR36mn of 10-year T-bonds, yield rises 17

Bulgaria's government debt growth speeds to 25.7% y/y in October 17

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 18

Bulgarian banking sector profit rises 35% y/y in January-October 18

Oliver Wyman withdraws appeal of tender for Bulgarian banks asset quality review 18

Bulgaria's M3 growth accelerates in October, domestic credit contraction moderates 18

Bulgaria's deposit, lending interest rates mixed in October 19

EXTERNAL SECTOR 20

Bulgaria's current account surplus widens 32% y/y in Jan-Sept 20

FDI in Bulgaria rise 26% y/y in January-September 21

Bulgaria's foreign trade deficit narrows 47% y/y in January-October 21

Bulgaria's gross external debt drops 11.2% y/y in September 22

Bulgaria's FX reserves rise 1.9% in November 23

POLITICS 23

Bulgaria's ruling coalition starts to fray 23





Table 1 GDP, % y/y real, seasonally-adjusted 7

Table 2 CPI, % y/y 7

Table 3 Domestic market PPI, % y/y 9

Table 4 Bulgaria consolidated budget, BGNmn 14

Table 5 Fiscal reserve, BGNmn 16

Table 6 Government debt, EURmn 17

Table 7 Money supply, domestic credit, loans 19

Table 8 Current account, EURmn 21

Table 9 Foreign trade, FOB/FOB, BGNmn 22

Table 10 Gross external debt, EURmn 23





Figure 1 Bulgaria CPI, PPI 8

Figure 2 Industrial output 10

Figure 3 Construction output 11

Figure 4 Retail sales 11

Figure 5 Unemployment rate 12

Figure 6 Average interest rates on new euro loans 20

Figure 7 Foreign trade 22