United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2014

United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The UK economy will set the pace for growth in Europe this year. Given the strength of recent growth numbers and the continued slew of positive macro data, we have revised up our 2014 growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.6% previously. However, we continue to warn that without a robust recovery in wages and business spending, the current rebound is at risk of losing momentum. In fact, most of the recent boom in consumer spending has been encouraged by rising property prices in London and other localised areas, which is unsustainable for retailers. As a result, we are cautious about growth in the food and drink area, especially in value terms as competition for value and consumer's more careful spending habits will limit potential for the industry in the near term.

Headline Industry Data
- 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency terms): +3.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +4.2%.
- 2014 per capita food consumption growth (local currency terms): +2.4%; CAGR to 2018: +3.6%.
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT . 9
Food 9
Drink . 11
Mass Grocery Retail . 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)................ . 18
Canned/Prepared Food . 18
Confectionery . 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)....... 20
Snack Food 21
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)......... . 22
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2011-2018)......... . 22
Pasta 23
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)............ . 23
Prepared Fish 23
Other Processed Foods . 24
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (United Kingdom 2011-2018)............. 24
Oils And Fats . 25
Dairy 25
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)............ . 26
Drink . 27
Hot Drinks . 27
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)........ . 28
Soft Drinks . 29
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)............. . 30
Alcoholic Drinks . 32
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)...... 33
Mass Grocery Retail . 35
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018).............36
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%)................................36
Trade . 37
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (United Kingdom 2011-2018)...................... 37
Macroeconomic Forecast 38
Economic Analysis 38
Table: UNITED KINGDOM - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY................................ 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414............................ 45
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q414 (scores out of 10)................. . 49
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Ratings . 50
Market Overview . 51
Food 51
Food Processing . 51
Prepared Food . 51
Confectionery . 52
Private Labels 53
Livestock . 54
Organic Food . 55
Drink . 56
Soft Drinks . 56
Alcoholic Drinks . 57
Mass Grocery Retail . 60
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (United Kingdom 2005-2010)...........61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2005-2014)........................62
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (United Kingdom 2005-2014)........................62
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format (2011).............................. . 62
Industry Trends And Developments 63
Food 63
Key Industry Trends And Developments 63
Drink . 78
Key Industry Trends And Developments 78
Mass Grocery Retail . 89
Key Industry Trends And Developments 89
Competitive Landscape 99
Table: Key Players In The UK's Food Sector................................... . 99
Table: Key Players In The UK's Drink Sector................................... 100
Table: Key Players In The UK's Mass Grocery Retail Sector.............................101
Company Profile 103
Associated British Foods . 103
Unilever 106
Table: Unilever Financial Results....................................... 113
Dairy Crest Group 115
Mondelez International . 118
Premier Foods . 122
Diageo . 125
Table: Diageo Financial Results....................................... . 130
Tesco . 131
Table: Tesco's Financial Highlights...................................... . 137
Sainsbury's 138
Asda . 140
Global Industry Overview 143
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials...........................149
Table: Food And Drink Core Views...................................... . 151
Demographic Forecast . 152
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)........................ . 153
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)...................... . 154
Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020...........................155
Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.........................155
Glossary . 156
Food & Drink . 156
Mass Grocery Retail . 156
Methodology 158
Industry Forecast Methodology 158
Sector-Specific Methodology 159
Sources . 159
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology . 160
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators................................ . 161
Table: Weighting............................................. 162
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