Country Report Equatorial Guinea 2nd Quarter 2015

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 2nd Quarter 2015


Outlook for 2015-19



  • The main threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The lack of political freedoms will continue to cause resentment among regime critics. However, firm control of the security forces means that the president will maintain overwhelming influence over the political scene.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • After peaking at 8.2% of GDP in 2015, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow gradually, reaching 3.5% of GDP in 2019, as oil revenue shortfalls and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending.
  • The economy will contract by an average of 2.7% a year in 2015-17 as oil production drops and public investment falls, before staging a modest recovery in 2018-19 on the back of rising natural gas output.
  • The current-account deficit, as a proportion of GDP, will widen to 20.4% in 2015 as oil exports fall, before narrowing to 13.9% in 2016 as oil prices recover. Thereafter it will widen as oil and gas exploration sucks in imports.


Review



  • In February Amnesty International, a UK-based non-governmental organi-sation (NGO), published its annual human rights report, alleging that several serious human rights violations took place in Equatorial Guinea in 2014.
  • The government refuted Amnesty's report and accused it of defamation. The lack of an independent media and severe restrictions on NGO activities makes it very difficult to verify developments on the ground.
  • The government has cut its oil revenue projection for 2015 by 58% owing to the fall in world crude prices since mid-2014. Oil revenue typically accounts for around 90% of total government revenue.
  • The government has failed to provide any news on the outcome of the 2014 licensing round, which was due to close by end-November 2014, raising concern that modest interest from investors caused it to be delayed.
  • Although falling oil prices will strain the public finances, the regime decided to host the 2015 African Cup of Nations, a continental football tournament, in January-February, after Morocco pulled out as host at the last minute.
  • The decision to host the football tournament was criticised by the opposition for being too costly. Regime critics saw it as an attempt to boost the country's international profile at the expense of spending on health and education.


Country Report Equatorial Guinea 2nd Quarter 2015
Highlights
Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability
Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch
Outlook for 2015-19: International relations
Outlook for 2015-19: Democracy index: Equatorial Guinea
Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends
Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2015-19: International assumptions
Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth
Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation
Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2015-19: External sector
Outlook for 2015-19: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure