Country Report Equatorial Guinea 3rd Quarter 2015

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 3rd Quarter 2015

Outlook for 2015-19

  • The main threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The lack of political freedoms will continue to cause resentment among regime critics. However, firm control of the security forces means that the president will maintain overwhelming influence over the political scene.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the fiscal deficit, after peaking at 7.4% of GDP in 2015, to narrow gradually, reaching 4% of GDP in 2019, as oil revenue shortfalls and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending.
  • The economy will contract by an average of 4.4% a year in 2015-17 as oil production drops and public investment falls, before staging a modest recovery in 2018-19 on the back of rising natural gas output.
  • The current-account deficit, as a proportion of GDP, will widen to 12.2% in 2015 as oil exports fall, before narrowing slightly in 2016 as oil prices recover. Thereafter it will widen as oil and gas exploration sucks in imports.


  • The president has appointed a new government after the previous cabinet was dissolved in mid-April. Most ministers retained their posts, however, including key allies of Mr Obiang who control the oil and security portfolios.
  • As many as 50 students were detained by security forces following student protests at the National University of Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, the capital, in late March. The grievances related to the award of student grants.
  • Regional heads of state agreed to implement a restricted version of a long-mooted free movement policy at a summit in Gabon on May 5th-6th. Plans for a regional airline were scrapped, however.
  • The state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the government of Equatorial Guinea have signed an infrastructure financing deal worth US$2bn, following a visit to China by Mr Obiang.
  • In late May the president decreed the "complete dissolution" of the country's judiciary. No clear reason was given for the dissolution, which involved the dismissal of all judges in the country.
  • Equatorial Guinea's oil production increased by 5.6% year on year, according to figures in BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. The government's own figures show a 4.5% decline in output, however.

Country Report Equatorial Guinea 3rd Quarter 2015
Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability
Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch
Outlook for 2015-19: International relations
Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends
Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2015-19: International assumptions
Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth
Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation
Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2015-19: External sector
Outlook for 2015-19: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure