Brazil Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to the preceding five. Nevertheless, we forecast strong grains production growth through to the end of our forecast period. We also see strong growth in the livestock and dairy sectors, as these will benefit from Russia's ban on imports of US products. We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past, due to reforms in the ethanol sector and the significant depreciation in the real over the past several months. Real weakness will be a net positive for the country's agricultural sector.


Key Forecasts

- Soybean production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 10.1% to 95.5mn tonnes. Strong growth will come as more area is shifted from corn to soy over the next few years as potential yield growth is stronger in soybean.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 17.8% to 10.7mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Sugar Outlook 14
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 14
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 17
Grains Outlook 20
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 21
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 22
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 22
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 24
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 24
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 24
Cocoa Outlook 26
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Brazil 2013-2019) 27
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 30
Dairy Outlook 31
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 32
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 32
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 34
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 35
Coffee Outlook 36
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 36
Table: GLOBAL COFFEE - SUPPLY FORECASTS & RISKS 38
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 39
Livestock Outlook 41
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 42
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 42
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 42
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 45
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 46
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 46
Cotton Outlook 48
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (Brazil 2013-2019) 49
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 51
Soybean Outlook 52
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 53
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Brazil 2009-2014) 60
Commodities Price Analysis 61
Monthly Softs Update 61
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 68
Monthly Grains Update 69
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 77
Upstream Analysis 78
Americas GM Outlook 78
Americas Machinery Outlook 84
Table: Key Regions To Struggle In 2015 86
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 90
Downstream Analysis 95
Food 95
Food Consumption 95
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2019) 96
Processed Food 96
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 96
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Brazil 2014-2019) 97
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Brazil 2014-2019) 97
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 98
Dairy 98
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 99
Confectionery 101
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2019) 102
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 103
Drink 104
Hot Drinks 104
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 105
Alcoholic Drinks 106
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 107
Soft Drinks 109
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Brazil 2014-2019) 109
Mass Grocery Retail 112
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 113
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) 113
Regional Overview 114
Competitive Landscape 120
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 120
Company Profile 121
JBS 121
Table: JBS Financial Results 131
São Martinho 133
Table: Financial Results 140
Demographic Forecast 142
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025) 143
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025) 143
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025) 144
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025) 144
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025) 145
Methodology 147
Industry Forecast Methodology 147
Sector-Specific Methodology 148
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