Global Economic Tracker - Insights and Trends Rest of World (ROW) Quarter 2, 2013

Global Economic Tracker - Insights and Trends Rest of World (ROW) Quarter 2, 2013

A Quarterly Pulse of Growth Opportunities

In Australia, weak commodity prices, a strong Australian dollar and low business sentiment will dampen economic activity in H2 2013. Weak investment in mining and manufacturing is likely to keep the Australian economy sluggish. In Argentina, policy easing is expected to boost domestic demand conditions and help rebound the business confidence. Aggressive macroeconomic stimulus measures in Japan in H1 2013 have boosted exports and industrial output and this trend is expected to continue through H2 2013. Due to a slowdown in the economy and a strong local currency, South Korea’s exports are expected to remain sluggish in H2 2013.

Executive Summary—Economic Growth Trends in Rest of World (RoW)

• Australia is better positioned compared to many other developed countries, despite the fact that the economic growth has been slow in H1 2013 contradicting expectations. This trend is likely to continue in Q3 2013.
• Argentina’s high inflation rates, weakening local currency, and low global demand are causes for concern during H2 2013.
• A higher household consumption and exports, conjugated with the macroeconomic stimulus policies of the government are expected to drive the growth of the Japanese economy in Q3 2013.
• A revamp in the construction sector, clubbed with moderate investment flow and improved exports, helped South Korea register a low but positive growth in H1 2013. This trend is expected to continue in Q3 2013.

Executive Summary—Regional Highlights

The surge in economic growth is expected to continue in Q3 2013 due to the macroeconomic stimulus package introduced by the newly elected Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe.

South Korea
Increase in housing and education costs, along with weakening wage growth is expected to further hamper the growth of the economy in Q3 2013.

Lack of private investment and rise in unemployment, along with economic imbalances, are major areas of concern in the beginning of H2 2013.

The slowdown in the mining sector is expected to further hamper the economic growth in Q3 2013. Hence, industrial diversification is the need of the hour.

Moderate growth in the RoW countries is likely to continue in H2 2013, mainly supported by the growth in Australia and Japan.

Executive Summary—Industry Outlook

Regional Industry Summary
• Along with the decline of the mining boom in Australia, there are also signs of decline in the food manufacturing industry in Q3 2013 because of increasing prices.
• Unfavourable foreign investment policies by the Argentinean Government, have hindered industry investment in Q2, 2013. The scenario is not expected to change in Q3 2013.
• In Japan, the beginning of Q3 2013 may witness an investment influx in electricity, wind, geothermal, and other renewable sources, as the new Prime Minister is seeking to revive the world’s third largest economy.
• Apart from information technology and automotive industries, manufacturing has led industrial growth in South Korea in Q2 2013, but the uncertainty regarding North Korea is a major cause of concern, making the industrial scenario gloomy in early H2 2013.

Definitions of Indicators and Measurements

Economic Indicators
• GDP: It is the value of goods and services produced within a country in a year.
• GDP Growth: GDP growth or the real GDP growth is the percentage change in the value added to the GDP at constant prices in the national currency value.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): FDI is the purchase of foreign assets or enterprise in a foreign country and is measured as the flow of funds into the country and net decrease of assets.
• Composite Leading Indicator (CLI): CLI is an aggregate time series displaying a reasonably consistent leading relationship with the reference series for the macroeconomic cycle in a country.
• Index of Industrial Production (IIP): IIP is a measure of change in the volume of production of a fixed set of products at constant price for all producer units and separate subdivisions thereof.
• Trade: It is the overall export and import value of all commodities.

Industry Indicators
• Value Added or Manufacturing Output: It is the output value of industries.
• Oil Production: It refers to the production volume of crude oil and is measured in thousand barrels a day.
• Gas Production: It refers to the production of natural gas and is measured in billion cubic feet.
• IIP: It denotes the index of industry production.
• IIP Growth: It refers to the growth rate of IIP.
• Trade: It refers to the overall export and import value by sector.
• Foreign Direct Investment by sector

Note: This study is accompanied by a data sheet with tracking indicators for all countries

Definitions—Geographic Coverage

• Geographic Coverage:
- Rest of World (RoW)

• Countries Covered:
- Australia
- Argentina
- Japan
- South Korea

• Industries Covered:
- Automotive
- Chemicals
- Construction
- Electricity
- Energy
- Food and Beverages
- Healthcare
- Information and Communication services
- Manufacturing
- Mining
- Pharmaceuticals
- Plastics

• Time Period:
- 2008 Q1 to 2013 Q4

• Forecast Period:
- 2013 Q1 to 2013 Q4

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4
Definitions 8
Regional Insights and Trends - Rest of World 11
Australia 15
Argentina 21
Japan 27
South Korea 33
Conclusion and Key Takeaways 39
The Frost & Sullivan Story 42