The report, Virtual Video Viewing 2014 – 2017: User Demand and Exhibition Transition, builds out multi-year forecasts, methodically plumbing exclusive databases spanning years 1999 – 2013 to plot a series of sine waves that reveal adoption trends and inform predictive analytics models. The period 2005 – 2013 includes the advent and ascendance of UGC’s virtual channel, and displays a combined CAGR of 51.8%.
Annual viewing includes professionally published and maintained destinations plus their syndication partners, as well as UGC hosting platforms and social environments, the latter generating the vast majority of choice-based viewing (84%), the former capturing the largest unique audience by far (a 2013 increase of 19.6% vs. 6%). Viewing tallied across all destinations and outlets is expected to rise 14.1% in 2014, delivering well over 1.27 billion gigabytes of related media traffic and leads off a 2014 – 2017 demand CAGR of 9.5%.
While overall viewing growth is moderating in aggregate, indicative of a larger, diverse, maturing and synchronizing video marketplace, publisher libraries populated with multiple content categories are transforming, impelling stepped up monetization efforts.
Professionally managed television-centric video (including broadcast and cable networks examined from 1999 – 2013) shows a CAGR of 68.3%, and now leads all other categories, including news (49.9%), movies (48.3%) sports (46.7%), music (-22% CAGR 2009 – 2013), and entertainment/kids (61.5%). Publishers and their brand partners have responded. Ad supported premium content monetized with in-stream video shows an insertion frequency of 1.12 avails per content play, driving a 41% increase in 2013/2014 inventory.
Even so, non-linear video spend is emergent. An hour-per-hour dollar analysis shows the virtual channel is undervalued compared to its linear counterpart by 44.1%.
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