Country Forecast Estonia 2nd Quarter 2014

Country Forecast Estonia 2nd Quarter 2014


Policy towards private enterprise and competition


2014-15: The government presses ahead with the break-up of Eesti Gaas (Estonian Gas) into separate distribution and supply operations.


2016-18: The gas network is merged with Elering, the state-owned electric power transmission operator, and remains in the public sector.


Policy towards foreign investment


2014-15: Rising regional tensions with Russia dampen new foreign investment.


2016-18: The focus of government policy shifts to more technologically sophisticated investment projects, aided by improved broadband coverage and lower electricity costs.


Foreign trade and exchange controls


2014-15: Trade policy decided at the EU level. EU sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine crisis could depress exports.


2016-18: Foreign trade and exchange restrictions remain minimal. Exports shift further towards the EU and to higher-value-added goods and services.


Taxes


2014-15: Indirect taxes remain high. The rate of personal tax comes down to 20%, and the personal allowance is raised. The overall tax rate on corporate profits remains low, with profits only being taxed when paid out as dividends.


2016-18: Higher disposable income boosts revenue from value-added tax (VAT).


Financing


2014-15: Corporate bank lending recovers only slowly as companies finance much expansion from internal resources, while house purchase lending accelerates.


2016-18: Institutional investors, such as pension funds, play an increasing role in the financial sector.


The labour market


2014-15: Labour shortages in some sectors intensify.


2016-18: Businesses press for a less restrictive attitude on immigration as shortages of skilled labour start to depress productivity and export competitiveness.


Infrastructure


2014-15: Investment in physical infrastructure is held back by regional competition over EU structural funds.


2016-18: Crossborder links strengthen energy security and reduce prices. The rail network to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland improves.



Country Forecast Estonia 2nd Quarter 2014
Estonia--highlights: Political outlook
Estonia--highlights: Demographic outlook
Estonia--highlights: Business environment outlook
Estonia--highlights: Economic outlook
Estonia--highlights: Market opportunities
Estonia--highlights: Long-term outlook
Fact sheet
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
Political outlook: Political stability
Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
Political outlook: Election watch
Political outlook: Key players to watch
Political outlook: International relations
Demographic assumptions
Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Business environment outlook: Estonia's business environment at a glance
Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Business environment outlook: Taxes
Business environment outlook: Financing
Business environment outlook: The labour market
Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Economic forecast: Policy trends
Economic forecast: Fiscal policy
Economic forecast: Monetary policy
Economic forecast: International assumptions
Economic forecast: Economic growth
Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Economic forecast: Inflation
Economic forecast: Exchange rates
Economic forecast: External sector
Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Estonia
Market opportunities: Market outlook
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Guide to the business rankings model
Indicator scores in the business rankings model

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