The World Market for Non-military Arms: A 2018 Global Trade Perspective

The World Market for Non-military Arms: A 2018 Global Trade Perspective

  • April 2017 •
  • 170 pages •
  • Report ID: 3035631
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition.

The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the INSEAD Chair Professor of Management Science. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are projected for a specific year of trade.

1 METHODOLOGY

1.1 OUR APPROACH
This report was created for strategic planners, international executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for non-military arms. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for non-military arms for those countries serving the world market via exports or supplying from various countries via imports. I do so for a specific year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the world market face a number of questions:
- Which countries are supplying non-military arms?
- What is the dollar value of these imports?
- How much do the imports of non-military arms vary from one country to another?
- Do exporters serving the world market have similar market shares across the importing countries?
- Which countries supply the most exports of non-military arms?
- Which countries are buying their exports?
- What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing the regional markets for imported and exported non-military arms. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for each region, is based on a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to a specific year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.

These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the shares that countries are likely to receive in a specific year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports, Chapter 3 details the exports of non-military arms, for each individual country. Chapter 4 does the same, but for imports of non-military arms for all countries in the world. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present the complete picture for imports and exports of non-military arms to and from all major countries in the world.

Of the countries considered, if a country is not reported here it is therefore estimated to have only a negligible level of trade in non-military arms (i.e. their market shares are close or equal to zero percent). "Non-military Arms" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3).

The SITC code that defined "non-military arms" is 8913.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are forecasted for a specific year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures should be seen as estimates of potential.

For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth disease, trade embargoes, labor disputes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.

Related Reports
This report was created for the market for non-military arms.

Closely related reports published by ICON Group include the following:
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