Country Report Angola October 2015

Country Report Angola October 2015

Outlook for 2015-19

  • Despite a more coherent stance by opposition groups, the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) is set to maintain its political domination by virtue of its control of government resources and parliament.
  • The government will remain cautious about introducing austerity measures that could lead to serious unrest, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain large in 2015, at 5.8% of GDP, before moderating as oil prices recover in 2016-19.
  • Although weak international oil prices will spur attempts to diversify the economy, real GDP growth will continue to be driven by trends in the hydrocarbons sector; growth is expected to average 5.2% in 2015-19.
  • The reduction of fuel price subsidies will exert upward pressure on prices, and devaluations of the kwanza will push up the cost of imported goods, pushing inflation into double digits in 2015-16.
  • The gap between the kwanza's official and parallel-market rates will remain wide, although it will narrow in the latter part of the forecast period as oil prices recover and the availability of foreign exchange improves.
  • The trade surplus as a proportion of GDP will fall by around one-third in 2015, reflecting a forecast decline in oil prices of nearly 50%. We expect the current account to remain in deficit in 2015-19.


  • Prosecutors in September sought a 12-year prison sentence against human rights activist José Marcos Mavungo for "inciting rebellion". This underscores the government's continued attempts to restrict political space in Cabinda.
  • Peter Hill has been named as the new chairman of Angola's national airline, Transportes Aéreos de Angola (TAAG). A more efficient operation by the airline could cut the price of flights and help to attract more investment.
  • Around 7,000 construction jobs have been lost since the start of the year, according to the county's largest trade union. The sector has lost 10% of its workforce since the beginning of 2015 as low oil prices continue to bite.
  • Sonangol, the state-owned oil company, has extended the deadline for its onshore bidding round to early October. The low price of oil and capacity limitations within the company have already led to delays.
  • The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA, the central bank) devalued the kwanza once more in September. The currency remains under pressure, and further adjustments are likely.
  • It was reported in early October that the government was again seeking to drum up interest in a Eurobond issue. Given the oil price environment the timing is poor, however, and the issue has reportedly been delayed again.

Country Report Angola October 2015
Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability
Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch
Outlook for 2015-19: International relations
Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends
Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2015-19: International assumptions
Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth
Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation
Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2015-19: External sector
Outlook for 2015-19: Forecast summary
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure