Country Risk Service Cote d%Ivoire September 2011 Updater

Country Risk Service Cote d%Ivoire September 2011 Updater

Cote d'Ivoire at a glance: 2011-12



The new president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant challenges: to establish a stable government; to manage the fallout from investigations into post-election atrocities; and to avoid further violence between rival factions. A truth and reconciliation commission will investigate the atrocities and could spur occasional political crises if it implicates leading politicians serving in Mr Ouattara's administration. The new government of national unity will be handicapped from the outset by the absence of any members from the former president Laurent Gbagbo's party, Front populaire ivoirien (FPI). The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will shrink in 2011 before recovering in 2012, assuming that political stability can be maintained.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

Laurent Gbagbo and more than 120 of his political and military associates have been charged with crimes committed during the bloody four-month stand-off that followed the disputed November 2010 presidential election. Although Mr Ouattara's government has been praised for taking action against Gbagbo loyalists who committed crimes, there is rising criticism of its failure to charge any pro-Ouattara forces with wrongdoing.

Economic policy outlook

The government has announced plans to introduce a new investment code before the end of the year. The aims are to make it easier to invest in the country and to encourage the industrialisation of the economy.

Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana have started bilateral negotiations to determine the maritime border between their respective exclusive economic zones as offshore drilling activity gathers pace in both countries.

Economic forecast

We forecast average inflation of 5.3% in 2011 (up from 3.3% previously because of new data), owing to sanctions during the political crisis. As global food and fuel prices ease, we forecast that inflation will fall to 2.2% in 2012.

Risk assessment

Sovereign risk

Currency risk

Banking sector risk

Political risk

Economic structure risk

Rating definitions

Sovereign risk

Currency risk

Banking sector risk

Political risk

Economic structure risk

Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2011-12: Political stability

Central scenario for 2011-12: Election watch

Central scenario for 2011-12: International relations

Central scenario for 2011-12: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2011-12: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2011-12: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2011-12: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2011-12: Inflation

Central scenario for 2011-12: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2011-12: Scenarios in the event of a euro zone break-up

Central scenario for 2011-12: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service