Bulgaria Country Report - November, 2015

Bulgaria Country Report - November, 2015

  • December 2015 •
  • 24 pages •
  • Report ID: 3307227 •
  • Format: PDF
This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period since November 15, 2015.

Standard & Poor's affirmed on December 11 its BB+/B long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Bulgaria with a stable outlook. Fitch affirmed on December 4 Bulgaria's sovereign credit rating at BBB-, the lowest rung on its investment grade ladder, with stable outlook.

The country's economy expanded by 2.9% y/y in Q3, the National Statistics Office (NSI) said on December 4, confirming its flash estimate.

The combined business climate indicator declined by 0.5 points m/m in November after rising by one point m/m in October. The industrial production growth accelerated slightly to 1% y/y in October from 0.8% y/y in September. The construction production narrowed 5.2% y/y in October, after falling 3% y/y in September. The retail sales (at constant prices) decreased 1.3% y/y in October after falling 2.5% y/y the month before.

The parliament adopted at second and final reading the 2016 budget late on December 2, setting the next year's deficit target at 2% of GDP.

Key points:

o The consumer price deflation narrowed to 0.4% y/y in November from 0.6% y/y in October

o Bulgaria reported a budget gap of BGN521mn (EUR266mn) for November, turning the outcome for the first 11 months of the year to a deficit of BGN457mn, or 0.5% of GDP, the finance ministry said in a preliminary estimate

o The current account surplus widened to EUR1.36bn in January-September from EUR1.03bn in the same period of 2014