Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The Central America region continues to struggle with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector, which decimated the 2013 crop. We believe that coffee production will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards. Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We expect Central America to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 7.7% to 14.8mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems. We see more potential for the sector in the long term due to government support schemes.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 12.0% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Livestock Outlook 12
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 13
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption 13
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 15
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption 16
Grains Outlook 17
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption 18
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption 21
Coffee Outlook 22
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption 23
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption 26
Sugar Outlook 27
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption 27
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption 31
Featured Analysis 32
Latin & Central America: Increasing Its Palm Oil Presence 32
Table: Select Countries - Historic Palm Oil Production ('000 tonnes) 37
Commodities Price Analysis 38
Monthly Softs Strategy 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 48
Monthly Grains Strategy 48
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 57
Upstream Analysis 58
Americas GM Outlook 58
Americas Machinery Outlook 64
Table: Key Regions To Struggle In 2015 66
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 69
Downstream Analysis 74
Food 74
Food Consumption 74
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 75
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 75
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 76
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 76
Confectionery 76
Meat 77
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 77
Jams & Jellies 79
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 79
Pasta 79
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 80
Prepared Fish 80
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 81
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 81
Oils & Fats 83
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 84
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 85
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 86
Dairy 86
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 87
Drink 91
Hot Drinks 91
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 92
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 92
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 92
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 93
Alcoholic Drinks 93
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 94
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 94
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 94
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018 95
Soft Drinks 95
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 96
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 96
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 96
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 97
Mass Grocery Retail 97
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022 98
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 98
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 99
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 99
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 100
Regional Overview 101
Demographic Forecast 107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025) 108
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025) 108
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025) 109
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025) 109
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025) 110
Demographic Outlook 112
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 113
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 113
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 114
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 114
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 115
Demographic Outlook 117
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025) 118
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025) 118
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025) 120
Demographic Outlook 122
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025) 123
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025) 123
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025) 124
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025) 124
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025) 125
Demographic Outlook 127
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025) 128
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025) 128
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025) 129
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025) 129
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025) 130
Demographic Forecast 132
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 133
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 133
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 134
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 134
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 135
Demographic Forecast 137
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025) 138
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025) 138
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025) 139
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025) 139
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025) 140
Methodology 142
Industry Forecast Methodology 142
Sector-Specific Methodology 143
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