Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We believe that Central America's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeitinconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 2019. Along the way, thedifferent sectors of the market will be forced to grapple with an array of headwinds that will directly impactoutput growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations,as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, we expect consumption output to outstrip supplyin the livestock sector. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rustdisease, or roya) and the potential impact of El Niño on food security in the region.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Coffee production growth 2013/15 to 2018/19: 35.6% to 15.9mn 60kg bags. As the effects of royahave eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate. We expect output in the region toincrease over our forecast period to 2019.
- 2015 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.7% (unchanged from our last quarterly update)
- 2015 consumer price inflation (regional average): 2.3% (down from 4.0% in 2014).
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Agribusiness 8
Industry Forecast 10
Livestock Outlook 10
Table: Central America - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 11
Table: Selected Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 13
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption 13
Grains Outlook 14
Table: Central America - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption 16
Coffee Outlook 17
Table: Central America - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption 19
Sugar Outlook 20
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption 22
Commodities Price Analysis 23
Global Commodities Strategy 23
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 23
Upstream Analysis 25
Americas Machinery Outlook 25
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 28
Americas GM Outlook 32
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 37
Downstream Analysis 43
Food 43
Food Consumption 43
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators 44
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators 44
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators 45
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators 45
Confectionery 45
Meat 46
Jams & Jellies 46
Table: El Salvador - Jam & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade 46
Pasta 47
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade 47
Prepared Fish 48
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade 48
Table: El Salvador - FIsh Volume Sales, Production & Trade 49
Oils & Fats 50
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade 50
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade 51
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade 51
Dairy 52
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade 53
Regional Overview 55
Demographic Forecast 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025) 64
Demographic Outlook 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 69
Demographic Outlook 71
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025) 72
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025) 72
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025) 73
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025) 73
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025) 74
Demographic Outlook 76
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025) 77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025) 77
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025) 79
Demographic Forecast 81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 82
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 84
Demographic Forecast 86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025) 87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025) 87
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025) 89
Demographic Outlook 90
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025) 92
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025) 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97
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