This report provides a comprehensive analysis for the global wireless macrocell base station market and remote radio unit market share. In depth historical unit shipment data is provided for 2015 with a five year forecast covering 2016-2020 is also included. Also included is a 5G base station forecast. Detailed macrocell base station and remote radio unit shipment data by OEM is provided for 2014 and 2015. This report covers air interface standards including GSM, CDMA, W-CDMA, TD-SCDMA, TDD LTE & FDD LTE. Detailed unit shipment data is included for the following OEMs: Datang, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei Technologies, NEC, Nokia Networks, Samsung, and ZTE.
Features - 2015 BTS Shipments by OEM - 2015 BTS Shipments by Air Interface - 2015 BTS Shipments by Geography - 2015 RRU Shipments by OEM - 2015 RRU Shipments by Air Interface - 2016-2020 BTS Shipment Forecast by Air Interface - 2016-2020 BTS Shipment Forecast by Geography - 2016-2020 RRU Shipment Forecast by Air Interface - 2016-2025 5G BTS Shipment Forecast - Total Pages: 120 - Total Tables: 66 - Total Exhibits: 90
2015 Review: The Year of the Chinese Grafting Probe and Inventory Chaos
For the past two years, the supply chain for the wireless infrastructure industry has experienced complete chaos. In 2014, it was Freescale Semiconductor that was the culprit, causing severe LDMOS RF Transistor shortages across the industry. In 2015, it was the Chinese government that caused demand issues for the supply chain as every segment within the Chinese economy became a target for its sweeping grafting probe. As soon as the supply for RF LDMOS transistors began to increase in the second half of 2014, easing the shortages experienced across the industry, the Chinese government began investigating corruption and grafting across all aspects of every sector within China including the military. This probe began in November 2014 and hit full stride by Q1 2015, causing significant delays in procurement for the Chinese mobile operators and Chinese wireless equipment OEMs. Expectations were high for 2015 due to the component shortages experienced in 2014.
A significant number of component suppliers saw demand plummet in Q2 2015 and continue to remain weak through Q3 until orders began to firm up in Q4. In analyzing the air interfaces, multi-mode/LTE technology accounted for x% of overall shipments, up from x% in 2014 while W-CDMA was x%, GSM at x%, CDMA at x% and TDSCDMA was zero. Total base station units shipped for 2015 were x million, up 16% from 2014. This was the highest ever level recorded by EJL Wireless Research since the inception of our BTS market analysis. Shipments exceeded our 2015 forecast by 64%.
Our goal remains to stay within +/-10% of actual results relative to our forecast within the near term (12 months), however it is impossible to predict what the financial markets or political unrest may do to impact global cap ex spending or scheduled spectrum auctions.
The most important metric was our forecast of the LTE market which was off by 94%. Given the legacy nature of GSM, CDMA and TD-SCDMA technologies and their relatively small market share, getting LTE right going forward is the only thing that matters. Unfortunately, our bet on the impact of the grafting probe for LTE shipments was wrong in 2015.
We expect that stand alone GSM shipments will reach a bottom in 2018 and remain flat through 2010. While many operators have expressed the intent to switch off their GSM networks over the next five years, we believe that the technology will continue to remain in use probably through 2020 or beyond. We also believe that given the potential difficulties surrounding the introduction of VoLTE to replace W-CDMA for voice, W-CDMA may also linger on longer than expected. However, stand alone W-CDMA solutions will be replaced with multi-RAT solutions so shipments of W-CDMA only will still continue to decline over the next five years. We have zeroed out shipments for CDMA by 2019.
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184 pages •
By Global Industry Analysts
• Apr 2021
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