Japan: Fixed Mobile Bundles, M2M/IoT and 5G launch to Support Telecom Growth
Summary Japan generated telecom service revenue of US$135.7bn (¥14.5trn) (equivalent to 2.9% of nominal GDP) in 2016, an increase of 14.1% since 2015, due to growth in mobile data and fixed broadband segments and a stronger yen. Mobile data continued to be the largest revenue-contributing segment and accounted for 41.0% of total service revenue in 2016, owing to Japan’s high data ARPU, multiservice ownership as well as rising LTE service adoption.
The top two operators, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI, which provide fixed, mobile services and pay-TV, accounted for 72.9% of total service revenue in 2016. NTT DoCoMo will continue to maintain its leadership position in the telecom market through 2021. Operators are focusing on LTE/LTE-A network expansion and upgrades as well as partnering with vendors for the development of 5G technology to be launched by 2020.
4G remains the most adopted technology in Japan and accounted for 59.7% of mobile subscriptions in 2016. However, its share will increase over the forecast period to reach 81.1% by 2021, supported by operator investment in LTE/LTE-A network speed enhancement and expansion. 3G subscriptions will decline at a CAGR of -13.1% during 2016-2021 and will reach 32.7m subscriptions by 2021, mainly due to increasing adoption of 4G and the upcoming launch of 5G.
Broadband lines will grow at a CAGR of 1.7% during 2016-2021, with penetration of population to increase from 30.5% in 2016 to 33.6% by 2021. Growth will be driven by encouraging government policies supporting FTTH adoption and operators’ discount bundled mobile and fixed-line services as well as cross-selling initiatives.
It is expected that overall service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% during 2016-2021. The growth will be driven by the mobile segment, in particular mobile data revenue, as a result of expansion of 4G networks and the planned rollout of 5G networks by 2020. The fixed/mobile revenue split will be dominated by the mobile segment through 2016-2021; by the end of the period, mobile revenue will account for 62.4% of all service revenue.
Over the next five years, as advanced 5G technology, 8K ultra-HD, IoT/M2M, smartphones and wearable devices take off; operators should seize opportunities in the market via mobile content and applications, OTT services and other value-added services. Vendors should position themselves to support LTE network upgrades, future 5G network deployments, and LTE- and 5G-enabled device demands.
The report "Japan: Fixed Mobile Bundles, M2M/IoT and 5G launch to Support Telecom Growth" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Japan today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021.
This report provides in-depth analysis of the following -
- Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in Japan compared with other countries in the region.
- A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
- Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.
- The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
- In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
- Main opportunities: This section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Japan’s telecommunications markets.
Companies mentioned in this report: NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, SoftBank, SkyPerfecTV, WOWOW.
Scope - The overall telecom service revenue in Japan will grow at a CAGR of 1.7% during 2016-2021, mainly driven by growth in mobile data and fixed broadband segments.
- Mobile revenue will account for 62.4% of total telecom revenue in 2021; mobile data will witness a CAGR of 6.2% during 2016-2021.
- The top two operators, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI, accounted for 72.9% share of overall service revenue in 2016. We expect competition to intensify as operators focus on offering services beyond core services and as they conduct 5G trials in a bid to launch 5G by 2020.
- Over the next five years, as advanced 5G technology, 8K ultra-HD, IoT/M2M, smartphones and wearable devices take off, operators should seize opportunities in the market via mobile content and applications, OTT services and other value-added services.
Reasons to buy - This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of Japan’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
- Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Japan mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
- With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
- The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in Japan’s telecommunications markets.
- The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Japan.
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