Passenger Forecast - Global Report (Update 2017)

Passenger Forecast - Global Report (Update 2017)

  • April 2017 •
  • Report ID: 5015348 •
  • Format: PDF
Partnered with Oxford Economics, we analyze fundamental drivers of air travel demand to identify major traffic trends for the next 20 years, and look into several alternate scenarios as well.

The Passenger Forecast solution ??predicts passenger demand by looking at factors like:
- The emerging middle class in developing countries
- Diverging demographic outlooks
- Further liberalization of aviation markets
- Climate change

Features of Passenger Forecast??
- Bi-annual updates in April and October
o In the April 2017 release of our Global Report we focus on a review of air passenger developments in 2016, the varied outlooks and drivers amongst emerging markets, and take a closer look at the Indonesian passenger market
- Several alternative scenarios of the future are explored to provide you with varied forecast results, along with a capability to run bespoke scenarios on demand

Multiple formats to suit your needs:
- Data Access (web-tool): Easy-to-use and fully customizable online data tool, complete with charting and mapping facilities for all metrics (pdf).??
- Global Report: Comprehensive global report (sample 1, pdf) including data tables (sample 2, pdf), and detailed commentary focusing on the drivers and trends that will shape air travel demand over the coming 20 years
- Country Reports: Concise, in-depth summary reports (sample, pdf) including data tables on the outlooks for the world’s largest air travel markets
- Bespoke Scenarios

Details of our coverage
Our forecast service contains annual forecasts of air passenger flows for almost 4,000 country pairs over the next 20 years on an origin-destination basis1. Our main focus is on the largest country-pair relationships – those where at least 1,000 passengers a month currently travel between them (on a bi-directional basis). These are the present-day powerhouses.

Crucially, our forecasts also include almost 800 country pair relationships that, while below our threshold of 1,000 passengers a month at present, we assess are likely to exceed it over the coming 20 years. The following word cloud depicts the countries that make up these country pairs, where the size of the lettering for each country indicates its relative prominence in our list of upcoming markets; the ‘markets of tomorrow’. As this report will explain, despite near-term outlooks, it is no surprise that the most prominent countries in the word cloud are from the emerging world.

Our forecasting framework
Our approach boils down the myriad factors that will combine to shape air travel markets in the long run into just three main drivers; doing so offers a simple but powerful framework to think about longterm trends in the industry.

Most factors that will influence air travel markets in the long run, from shifting dynamics in energy markets to structural economic reforms, will affect air markets through one of the three following channels.

The next section provides an overview of our main forecast numbers and stories.

Additional details can be found in the accompanying global PDF report. This rest of this report considers each of the three main drivers in detail, highlighting the fundamental factors that underpin our forecasts.

What’s new with this update?
• Review of air passenger markets in 2015
• A section looking ahead at some of the key themes that will shape global markets in the near and long terms
• A special feature investigating where the biggest potential gains from air liberalization lie

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