• The global market for electric vehicle (EV) will grow from $75.7 billion in 2017 to around $127.7 billion by 2022 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.0% for the period of 2017-2022. • Passenger EV as a segment will grow from $34.5 billion in 2017 to $63.2 billion by 2022 with a CAGR of 12.9% for the period of 2017-2022. • Scooter EV as a segment will grow from nearly $24.5 billion in 2017 to $42.0 billion by 2022 with a CAGR of 11.4% for the period of 2017-2022.
Chapter 1: Introduction
Study Goals and Objectives Electric vehicles (EVs) have been a commercial reality for more than 100 years. This report author’s grandfather owned a thriving business that provided Exide lead-acid battery packs to 1920s EV users. Shortly thereafter, inexpensive gasoline and the ever-increasing desire for better performance ended widespread EV use. Oil shortages and increasing concern about the environment began to revive the industry in the 1970s, but wide adoption of various types of EVs always seemed just beyond the horizon. It would happen as soon as gasoline cost more than $1 a gallon, or $2, or $4; or as soon as batteries improved to the point they could power a car for 40 miles; or as soon as batteries could be recharged in less than six hours.
These technological and market forces were resolved or exceeded, and during the first five years of the 21st century, the lead-acid battery-powered EV market began a slow, steady period of growth. The subsequent five years saw widespread use of nickel metal hydride battery-powered hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), the commercial production of pure battery-powered EVs in many niche markets, widespread adoption of (usually) lead-acid battery-powered scooters, and commercial-scale demonstrations of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).
It was soon determined that HEVs could be turned into nickel metal hydride or lithium-ion batterypowered plug-ins that could be recharged by the vehicle’s internal combustion engine, as well as a battery charger plugged into utility electric power. The original approach to the plug-in was a so-called pure EV that had no internal combustion engine, just a motor and some type of battery bank. However, this new approach resulted in an entirely new class of vehicle: the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) or the extended range EV, which has many of the advantages of both battery power and internal combustion power.
Currently, EVs include passenger vehicles, scooters and buses as well as various niche products. Industrial EVs remain a significant market. State-of-the-art batteries have enabled a growing niche market for trucks, buses, small electric scooters, and Segway-type vehicles. An entirely new market for low-velocity or neighborhood EVs includes everything from relatively low-tech, street-ready golf carts to advanced concept vehicles.
Surprisingly, the majority of the world’s EVs are electric scooters, motorcycles, and personal mobility devices sold in the People’s Republic of China. Even in the age of advanced lithium-ion and lithium-ion polymer cells, most of these are still powered by lead-acid batteries. There is a drive to expand this market throughout the Far East and into India. Meanwhile, a revolutionary type of vehicle is emerging: the self-driving or autonomous vehicle.
Although these vehicles will not be widely used within the five-year scope of this report, they will eventually become a large (or possibly the largest) type of EV.
Reasons for Doing This Study The global market for EV power sources is continuing to grow in most market sectors. The long predicted explosive growth was first blunted by the global recession, then the global collapse of gasoline prices, anticipated gasoline prices, relatively isolated safety concerns, and, in some cases, technology that has not always lived up to expectations. Although much of the world remains committed to widespread adoption of EVs to reduce climate change-inducing carbon dioxide generation, the current Trump administration is systematically rolling back Obama-era regulations that supported U.S. EV adoption.
On the other hand, the foundation for much wider EV use is now well established, and there are wellfinanced private and government-backed plans for the introduction of large numbers of next-generation vehicles. As the market for battery-powered vehicles grows, the emerging market for fuel cell-powered vehicles is poised for a break out due to their wider use. Even as street-ready proton exchange membrane fuel cell EVs hit the roads, a fundamental shift in hydrocarbon recovery is making natural gas more competitive with gasoline and diesel fuels.
With these opposing trends and developments in play, it is more important than ever to have access to an informed analysis of the industry’s status and possible scenarios, as well as a realistic assessment of the industry’s fortunes. This report provides this analysis, starting with a summary of the power storage technology involved and then moving on to detailed profiles of major power source makers, and finally presenting, with well-defined consensus, optimistic and pessimistic market scenarios for units sold, the value of these units, and prices.
Scope of Report After decades of expensive development and false starts, the world is finally ready for EVs. For the purpose of this report, the term “electric vehicles” includes commercial approaches such as pure battery-powered, plug-in hybrid, hybrid internal combustion/battery, range extended, and FCVs, as well as vehicles powered by developmental power sources such as supercapacitors and flywheel. In addition to cars and trucks, this report considers motorcycles, scooters, buses, neighborhood EVs, self-driving carts, military vehicles, and locomotives.
This report details actual figures for 2013 and 2016 and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projections for 2017 through 2022 for the global and four regional markets. Power source sales and values are provided under consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. A patent analysis and discussion of power sources and vehicle components describes the areas in which research is being performed and emphasizes intellectual property issues. Note that values are expressed in million dollars and shipments are expressed in 1,000 vehicles. In both cases, totals are rounded to the nearest integer (i.e., less than $500,000 is expressed as 0.)
Values are based on the equivalent of wholesale, or the price charged to the retailer prior to mark-up. However, advanced EVs are sold at a price below actual manufacturing cost. This may be due to regulatory compliance or the desire to establish a market before economics of scale kicks in. The cost to consumers may be reduced considerably when government subsidies or possible tax breaks are added to the dealer price.
As defined by BCC Research for this report, EVs and FCVs include the following: - HEVs. - PHEVs. - EVs (pure EVs).
Specific types of vehicles using these batteries include: - Passenger vehicles (sedans, microcars, SUVs, crossover SUVs, pickup trucks, sports cars). - Low-velocity vehicles (golf carts, neighborhood EVs, personal mobility devices). - Scooters (two-wheelers, motorcycles, some three-wheelers). - Buses. - Commercial/industrial vehicles (material handling equipment, burden carriers, forklifts, trucks). - Niche vehicles (self-driving vehicles, military equipment, locomotives).
This report defines the market sectors, identifies leading companies and analyzes the markets to provide a five-year market forecast. Finally, the company profiles section provides the status of and recent events for companies making power sources.
Regions covered include: - North America: Canada and the U.S. - Far Eas New Zealand, other Pacific nations, Russia, Eastern Europe and Turkey.
Global Electric Vehicle Market, by Configuration Passenger Low velocity Scooter Bus Commercial/industrial Niche
Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Market, by Power Source Lead-acid Nickel metal hydride Lithium-ion Fuel cells Exotic
Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Market, by Configuration Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) Electric vehicle (pure EV)
Chapter 2: Summary and Highlights As defined in this report, the global EV market will be worth over $75.7 billion in 2017 and is estimated to increase to almost $128.0 billion in 2022. This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% between 2017 and 2022 under a consensus scenario.
Much of this value and growth will result from passenger EVs. BCC Research anticipates a $63.2 billion annual passenger EV market in 2022 under a consensus scenario. An optimistic but still possible scenario could see a market worth more than $71.5 billion in 2022 (based on a 15.7% CAGR). The consensus scenario is based on the sale of over two million passenger EVs annually by 2022.
This volume of shipments is dwarfed by the largest segment of the EV market based on number of units. More than 55 million battery-powered scooters and bikes will be shipped in 2017, mainly to meet near insatiable demand in the Far East. Despite regulations designed to discourage the use of eBikes, shipments are on track to grow to 70 million units in 2022. Under an optimistic scenario, 2022 shipments could be more than 79 million units, mainly based on expanded sales outside of China, especially in India. Against expectations, most of these EVs are powered using lead-acid batteries.
BCC Research also analyzed the rapidly recovering FCV market to present a series of consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Under a consensus scenario, about 37,000 vehicles could be shipped annually in 2022. An optimistic scenario could see more players and more widely available hydrogen fueling infrastructure, which would result in more than 38,000 FCVs sold annually in 2022. This will be very close to the tipping point, where refueling infrastructure becomes economical using reasonable near-term assumptions. Even a pessimistic scenario could still see an annual global market of 18,000 shipments. Definitions of these consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are described in detail in the report.
The following table summarizes the global historic and projected EV market under a consensus scenario. Please refer to this report’s Vehicle Market sections for detailed definitions of each market as well as point-by-point lists and discussions of influencing factors and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
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