Commercial Electric Vehicle Market by Propulsion (BEV, HEV, PHEV, FCEV), by Vehicle Type (Electric Bus [>10 m, <10 m], Electric Trucks [LDT, MDT, HDT]), by Battery (LFP, NMC), by Cell Format (Pouch, Prismatic, Round), by Geography (U.S., Canada, Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Norway, China, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, U.A.E.) – Global Market Size, Share, Development, Growth, and Demand Forecast, 2013–2025
Commercial electric vehicle market is projected to reach $362.7 billion by 2025, the growth of the market is majorly driven by stringent vehicular emission norms all around the globe. Conventional diesel-powered commercial vehicles contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to cut down the emissions from these vehicles, the governments in different countries are tightening the emission standard. In addition, the governments are supporting the adoption of commercial vehicles running on alternative fuels by announcing financial incentives schemes for the purchase of these vehicles, benefitting the market during the forecast period.
On the basis of propulsion, the commercial electric vehicle market has been categorized into battery electric vehicle (BEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). The BEV category is expected to dominate the market during the forecast period. This can be attributed to technological advancements in battery technology, which bring down the upfront cost; and the financial incentives offered by governments on the purchase of these vehicles. Based on vehicle type, the market has been categorized into electric bus and electric truck.
The commercial electric vehicle market for electric buses grew at a faster rate, with a CAGR of 75.9% in terms sales volume, during the historical period. Huge demand for electric buses from customers, including city governments and public-transit operators, is a propulsion to the strong adoption of electric buses.
Based on battery, the commercial electric vehicle market has been categorized into lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), lithium-nickel-manganese–cobalt oxide (NMC), and others. Commercial vehicles that run on LFP batteries are expected to continue dominating the market in the coming years. LFP batteries are safer than other batteries in the market and, therefore, more preferred for heavy-duty electric buses and trucks. However, during the forecast period, the fastest growth in the market is expected from NMC battery-powered commercial electric vehicles, with 20.4% CAGR, in terms of sales volume. lithium–titanate oxide (LTO) batteries are also expected to grow significantly during the forecast period.
Globally, APAC held the largest share in the commercial electric vehicle market during the historical period, accounting for more than 80% sales volume in 2017. China is the largest market for these vehicles in the world. Favorable government subsidies, stringent emission norms, and fuel-based vehicle replacement targets are the major factors driving the domestic demand for commercial electric vehicles in China.
The commercial electric vehicle market in other parts of the world is still in its nascent phase and depends largely on government policies. The presence of few electric bus manufacturers and comparatively higher upfront costs have restricted the sales of these vehicles in these regions. However, the manufacturers in these regions are investing heavily for the development of these vehicles, which is anticipated to upsurge the market growth during the forecast period.
Over the years, automated driving has gained traction in the commercial electric vehicle market. Technological advancements in the fields of instrumentation, and actuation and sensing technologies have led to the emergence of autonomous and semi-autonomous transportation systems. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Navya SAS, AB Volvo, Easy Mile SAS, and SB Drive are embracing autonomous driving and working toward the development of autonomous vehicles.
In September 2018, Volvo Trucks, a subsidiary of AB Volvo, unveiled Vera, an autonomous electric truck to meet the growing demand for commercial vehicles, primarily in the proliferating e-commerce industry, in a sustainable way. In August 2018, Keolis SA in collaboration with Navya SAS announced the launch of a long-term autonomous electric shuttle demonstration project in Quebec, Canada. The pilot project will take place over a period of 12 months, with about eight months dedicated to serving citizens. The increasing activities of the major OEMs toward the development and launch of autonomous commercial electric vehicle is observed as a major trend in the market.
The global commercial electric vehicle market is led by the Chinese manufacturers. Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co. Ltd., closely followed by BYD Co. Ltd., is the leading player in the electric bus market. These two companies hold a major share in the market, mainly on account of the longer battery life, more driving distance, and increased efficiency offered by their buses, as compared to buses offered by other market players. Dongfeng Motor Corporation is the leading player in the electric truck market. Other important player in the market are Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co. Ltd., Nanjing Golden Dragon Bus Co. Ltd., Zhuhai Yinlong New Energy Ltd., Futian Ouhui Bus, AB Volvo, Voltia a.s., Alkè, Zenith Motors, LLC, and Daimler AG’s subsidiary Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation.
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