Lundbeck

Lundbeck

  • August 2018 •
  • 45 pages •
  • Report ID: 5780122 •
  • Format: PDF
PharmaVitae explores Lundbeck’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.

Snapshot
Overview – Lundbeck’s prescription pharmaceutical sales are forecast to grow at a 1.9% CAGR over the forecast period.
Key themes – [1] Key CNS products are expected to drive growth after 2015 restructuring program [2] Generic market entries will erode sales of five drugs and represent a significant growth resistor for Lundbeck [3] New label expansions and launches will significantly boost Lundbeck’s revenue [4] Antidepressants will continue to form the backbone of Lundbeck’s growth trajectory [5] Lundbeck will fail to remain competitive in the Alzheimer’s disease market.
Q2 2018 – Lundbeck’s growth streak continues as it ushers in new CEO.
Out to 2022 – Revenues are expected to drop in 2019 as generic headwinds intensify, but label expansions and the maturation of key products will drive growth of $317m by 2022.
Out to 2027 – Topline revenue will grow by $526m, driven by the uptake of psychiatry drugs Rexulti, Abilify Maintena, and Trintellix.
Pipeline – New label expansions will increase Lundbeck’s revenue during 2017–27 and ensure a positive outlook despite only Lu AF35700 being set to launch in the forecast period.
Lifecycle – The mid-term growth of Lundbeck’s expiry portfolio will more than offset a decline in its core products.
Events – New CEO announced and recent Prexton acquisition.

Model updates
Added generic market entry event for Northera in 2021.
Extended market exclusivity for Trintellix to 2027.
Removed Carnexiv sales.
Adjusted Trintellix sales upwards due to US label expansion.

Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Lundbeck’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.

Quarterly review

What were the major highlights from Lundbeck’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?

Strategy analysis

How is Lundbeck strategically poised out to 2027?
What are Lundbeck’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
What are Lundbeck’s key catalysts during the current year?

Portfolio analysis

Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Lundbeck’s important therapeutic markets?
How is Lundbeck adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?

Facts and figures
What is Lundbeck’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
What is the revenue trajectory of Lundbeck’s current top 10 products out to 2027?
Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
What are the portfolio weightings of Lundbeck based on the lifecycle of its products?