Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain selfsufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.

- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 11.9% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Agribusiness . 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook .. 11
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018 . 12
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018 13
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2013-2018 13
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013 . 15
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013 15
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2008-2013 16
Grains Outlook 17
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) 2013-2018 18
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) 2008-2013 19
Coffee Outlook . 21
Table: Central American Countries - Coffee Production ('000 bags) 22
Table: Central American Countries - Coffee Production ('000 bags) 25
Sugar Outlook .. 26
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) . 27
Table: Obesity Rates By Country/Region . 31
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) . 31
Commodities Price Analysis ... 33
Monthly Grains Strategy ... 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 41
Monthly Softs Strategy . 41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 50
Upstream Analysis ... 51
Americas Machinery Outlook .. 51
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region 52
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .... 58
Americas GM Outlook . 62
Downstream Analysis ... 67
Food .... 67
Food Consumption .... 67
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 68
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 68
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 . 69
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 . 69
Confectionery . 69
Meat ... 70
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 . 70
Jams & Jellies 72
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 . 72
Pasta .. 72
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 . 73
Prepared Fish 73
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 74
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 . 74
Oils & Fats .... 76
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 77
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 78
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 . 79
Dairy .. 79
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018 80
Drink ... 84
Hot Drinks 84
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 . 85
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 . 85
Alcoholic Drinks .. 86
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 86
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 87
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 . 87
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018 87
Soft Drinks 88
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 88
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 89
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 . 89
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 . 90
Mass Grocery Retail ... 91
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022 91
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 . 92
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 . 92
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 93
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 93
Regional Overview ... 94
Demographic Forecast .... 100
Belize . 100
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 101
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 102
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 103
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 103
Costa Rica .... 104
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 105
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 106
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 107
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 107
El Salvador ... 108
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 109
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 110
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 111
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 111
Guatemala .... 112
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 113
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 114
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 115
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 115
Honduras . 116
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 117
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 118
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 119
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 119
Nicaragua 120
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 121
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 122
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 123
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 123
Panama ... 124
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 125
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 126
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 127
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 127
Methodology . 128
Industry Forecast Methodology 128
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 129
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